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Looking Forward and Back at the ACC
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Rob Clough
WomensHoops.scout.com
May 4, 2009

Full Court correspondent Rob Clough takes a look at how each team in the ACC finished its season, then looks ahead to next season to analyze how personnel changes and other factors are likely to effect their prospects.

Taking each team in the order in which they finished this season:

Maryland (#1 Seed in Raleigh Region)

Results: Beat sixteen-seed Dartmouth, beat nine-seed Utah, beat four-seed Vanderbilt; lost to three-seed Louisville.

What Went Right: After winning the ACC regular season and tournament titles, the Terps blew through the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament behind strong showings by Marissa Coleman. However, the Terps' lack of defensive intensity started to catch up with them as they had to rally to beat a less talented Vanderbilt team behind a superhuman performance by Coleman. Coleman proved that she deserved the ACC player of the year award over Toliver, given her ability to score from anywhere on the floor against any kind of opponent, get to the foul line and also rebound. She was also clutch in game after game. The Terps' also developed some nice supporting players, especially JuCo star Dee Liles.

What Went Wrong: Maryland's softness as a team was exposed by upstart Louisville, who suffocated Coleman and Toliver defensively and pounded them inside. Maryland's greatest asset was their supreme ability to score whenever needed and come back from almost any deficit, but Louisville coach Jeff Walz knew that as long as his team confidently attacked the basket and kept a lead, his old team wouldn't be able to recover. It had to be especially galling for Maryland coach Brenda Frese to lose to her old chief recruiter, given their current, seemingly icy relationship. That's especially true since Maryland's recruiting hasn't been the same since Walz left.

Next Season's Outlook: Frese should be happy that her team finally won the ACC after several years of frustration, because it seems like the good times are over. With Coleman and Toliver gone, the Terps will lose nearly half their scoring punch. But the transfer of starting wing Marah Strickland poured salt in that wound -- cumulatively, Maryland has lost 45 out of of 79 points per game, with no obvious successors who have anywhere near the talent level of Coleman, the accuracy of Toliver, or the potential of Strickland. At the moment, the Terps have only nine scholarship players, something likely to be remedied over the summer with the addition of JuCos. Next year's team will regroup around rising soph post Lynetta Kizer and high-flying Liles.

Reserve guards Anjale Barrett and Kim Rodgers both showed promise last season as scorers and will be asked to take many more shots. Frosh point guard Dara Taylor may well be thrust into an immediate starting job, while transfer wing Lori Bjork will get all the minutes she can handle. Frese will hope she can get some backup post minutes from projects like soph Yemi Oyefuwa and frosh Essence Townsend, but freshman Tianna Hawkins will need to be ready to play right away. There's still some talent left in College Park, but this is not a team that will contend for an ACC title.

Florida State (#3 Seed in Trenton Region)

Results: Beat fourteen-seed NC A&T, lost to six-seed Arizona State.

What Went Right: A very good year for Florida State fizzled in postseason play. They tied for the ACC regular-season crown and knocked off both Duke and UNC at home. Rising senior center Jacinta Monroe blossomed into stardom, while senior guards Tanae Davis-Cain and Mara Freshour were steady scoring hands. The biggest key for the team was that rising junior Courtney Ward emerged as a solid point guard, freeing up the other perimeter players to score. This was one of the most balanced teams in the league, playing excellent defense, scoring inside and out and featuring a number of fine athletes.

What Went Wrong: While FSU was very well-balanced, they lacked that one player with the star power needed to bail them out of tight spots. Playing Arizona State was a bit like playing a mirror version of themselves and it wound up being a bad matchup for the Seminoles. ASU's depth was enough to contain FSU, who lacked that transcendent player who could take over in crunch time.

It must also be acknowledged that FSU benefited from an easy league schedule, especially in that they had to play the league's three traditional powers just once apiece, and all at home. Once postseason play began, FSU simply regressed to the mean.

Next Season's Outlook: The big question for FSU will be where the shooting will come from. The team will look to quick guards Angel Gray and Alysha Harvin to pick up some of the slack from the departing senior guards, but both of those players had best hit the gym and practice their jumpshots this summer. Rising soph center Ciera Bravard has a great deal of potential but will also need a summer of serious conditioning. Her playing time was at times limited last year due to sheer exhaustion. FSU will focus their offense around their bigs while getting to play quicker players at other positions; look for more pressing and trapping.

Ultimately their fate as a team will lie in how well Ward continues to develop. She became a legitimate starter this season, but does she have what it takes to evolve into a star? If the answer is yes, look for FSU to maintain their status as a top-four team in the league.

UNC (#3 Seed in Oklahoma City Region)

Results: Beat fourteen-seed UCF; lost to six-seed Purdue.

What Went Right: The Heels started the year 17-0, beating Oklahoma in Norman to win the preseason WNIT. They also took care of Ohio State on the road and looked like they were ready to continue their mini-dynasty in the ACC. Their huge home win over Duke in January was their last big highlight of the year.

The team did get a great year from versatile rising senior forward Jessica Breland, while junior Italee Lucas became a deadly scorer. Sophs She'La White and Chay Shegog had extremely promising rookie years.

What Went Wrong: The Heels finished the season 11-7, including that embarrassing loss to Purdue in which the Boilermakers shot 57%. The Heels were humbled by UConn at home and dropped key road games at Duke, FSU, Maryland and Georgia Tech. The Heels lacked a true leader to keep their organized chaos in line; departing senior Rashanda McCants was definitely not that player. She regressed last year and was erratic from game to game. Breland, while extremely talented, could dominate one night and throw up a goose egg the next. The most distressing thing for the Heels was that their team rebounding was not what it once was, nor were they the physical club that opponents once feared.

Next Season's Outlook: The team's only significant loss is McCants, and there is plenty of talent coming in. Frosh Tierra Ruffin-Pratt could be the wing defensive stopper the team has needed. There's plenty of size coming into the program as well, and expect Shegog to grab a starting spot as a soph. That will allow Breland to slide back over to power forward. Half the roster seemed to be playing out of position last season; a greater overall comfort level is likely for the team this coming year. UNC will have more quality depth and size than any other ACC team, and I expect them to be on top of the league standings once again.

Virginia (#5 Seed in Trenton Region)

Results: Beat twelve-seed Marist; lost to four-seed California.

What Went Right: The Cavs overcame some serious personnel issues to make the NCAA tournament and score a comeback win over a dangerous foe. Monica Wright continued her showing as one of the league's most dominant players, while the frosh showed some potential. Virginia beat both Florida State and Maryland and were the only team to do so in the regular season. Even without star forward Lyndra Littles, the Cavs also beat Tennessee in Knoxville.

What Went Wrong: When starting guard Paulisha Kellum went down with a preseason ACL injury, Virginia's hopes for a league title went into the tank. Kellum was supposed to replace all-time assist leader Sharnee Zoll, but that task was instead spread around over a committee that wasn't up to the task.

Littles had to sit out the first semester for academic reasons, and while she put up good numbers upon her return, the team as a whole wasn't that much better even with her present. That's mainly because the team's only defensive stopper, Enonge Stovall, flunked out of school. It also didn't help that powerful center Aisha Mohammed never quite regained her form of a season ago due to injury.

Coach Debbie Ryan also started to lose her faith in talented frosh point guard, Ariana Moorer, forward Chelsea Shine and wing Whitny Edwards. She instead gave more playing time to more experienced but less talented players, and the results were predictable. By season's end, Virginia was a tough draw because of the sheer scoring ability of Wright and Littles, but the Hoos couldn't defend anyone.

Next Season's Outlook: Kellum's return will be a welcome one, as she and Wright will be the only upperclasswomen of note. How good Virginia can be will lie in the development of their rising sophomores and in the impact of their highly-regarded freshman class. Frosh PG China Crosby is likely to be given a chance to run the team right away, while posts Erinn Thompson and Simone Egwu will be called upon to rebound and score in the paint immediately. This is a team that could take a month or two to gel, but there's a lot of talent here. Virginia could finish anywhere from third to seventh, but they likely won't be a team that anyone will want to play late in the year.

Georgia Tech (#9 Seed in Oklahoma City Region)

Results: Beat eight-seed Iowa; lost to top-seeded Oklahoma.

What Went Right: This scrappy Jackets team felt like it was a year away from making a big splash, but they still scored plenty of big wins. They beat Georgia, Michigan State and UNC to bolster their postseason credentials. For a program whose NCAA tournament wins could be counted on one hand, they easily took care of Iowa in the first round. Oklahoma was a bad matchup for them, but it was clear that do-it-all wing Alex Montgomery has become a star. Their extremely physical, full-court pressing style of play also bothered a lot of opponents.

What Went Wrong: Not to sound like a broken record, but Tech struggled because they didn't feature a true point guard nor did they have any kind of consistent post presence. This meant that they struggled to get easy baskets in the half court and depended way too much on turning opponents over. This also forced Montgomery to take up too much of the scoring slack, so one often saw her taking tough shots.

Next Season's Outlook: This could be Tech's year to challenge for a top-two slot in the league. They return every significant player but defensive demon Jacqua Williams. She was ostensibly the team's point guard but wasn't a true playmaker; it was a position she was thrust into. There is some balanced scoring on this roster, with forwards Brigitte Ardossi and Iasia Hemingway giving opponents different looks and guard Deja Foster stepping up as a soph in all areas. The real key for the team will be the development of hulking center Sasha Goodlett. Goodlett is tall, powerful and quite skilled, but her conditioning is not up to ACC standards. If she gets in better shape, then Tech will have that low-post option that frees up everyone else. Keep an eye on frosh point guard Sharena Taylor; if she can step in and run the team, then Tech will challenge UNC for the league title.

Duke (#1 Seed in Berkeley Region)

Results: Beat 16-seed Austin Peay; lost to nine-seed Michigan State.

What Went Right: Duke went unbeaten at home and finished just a game behind Maryland and FSU for the regular-season league crown. Then they beat two ranked teams in the ACC tournament before falling to the Terps in an overtime classic. That run earned them a Number One seed in the NCAA tournament, albeit one that found them playing in hostile territory.

Chante Black earned some All-America nods with her steady play, guard Jasmine Thomas started to harness much of her considerable potential, and powerful wing Karima Christmas emerged as a physical and clutch presence. Duke's defense was relentless and suffocating, and their depth wore down many opponents.

What Went Wrong: The loss to Michigan State, McCallie's former team, was a confluence of a a lack of intensity and a failure to make necessary in-game adjustments when the game plan wasn't working. Guard Abby Waner did a little of everything except shoot well. Duke's offense was stale and predictable, except when certain players freelanced after offensive rebounds. The pound-it-inside philosophy wasn't really meant for this team's personnel, and the players themselves frequently looked visibly unhappy and confused trying to play it.

Next Season's Outlook: Losing a scorer and defender like Black is a significant blow, as is losing a playmaker like Waner. There is still plenty of talent and athleticism on the roster; the Devils are up there with Georgia Tech and UNC in terms of athletes.

One key for Duke this season will be how their freshman and sophomore classes develop. McCallie has been unable to lure high school All-Americans to Durham, but she was certainly able to do more with less at Michigan State. The lingering question: Is she bringing in underrated talent that will thrive in her system, or is Duke entering a slow state of decline as a league power?

Boston College (WNIT, top 16 seeds)

Results: Defeated Boston University, St. John's and Georgetown in the WNIT. Lost to South Florida in the WNIT.

What Went Right: This was a pretty fine season for new coach Sylvia Crawley. The Eagles beat virtually every team they were supposed to (the only really bad loss was to fellow WNIT team Wake Forest). The reason they didn't make it into the NCAA tournament was that their only really good win was against Georgia Tech. If they had managed just one more good win, especially on the road, they probably would have made the tournament. Still, Mickel Picco has matured into a consistently deadly outside shooter and hulking Carolyn Swords is one of the toughest matchups in the league. While former ACC rookie-of-the-year Stefanie Murphy regressed a bit toward the mean as a sophomore, she was still a potent scoring threat.

What Went Wrong: BC couldn't win against the league's elite because they don't have elite athletes. Crawley wanted her team to run but eventually realized that they simply couldn't survive games where they tried to go toe-to-toe with the likes of UNC, Duke or Georgia Tech. The Eagles weren't going to win many track meets, nor did they have the talent pool to beat the league's best opponents with half-court execution. BC lacked quality depth and had to play point guard by committee the whole year.

Next Season's Outlook: The entire starting lineup returns intact, something that can't be said of most ACC teams. The league's lower-level teams can't cope with BC's quality size, and Picco is such an outside threat that simply zoning them won't work either. What's going to ultimately make or break BC's season will be the development of their young players. Three juniors who received minimal playing time just transferred, which may well be a sign that Crawley is clearing the decks to open up more scholarships. The frosh and sophs will have every opportunity to build BC's bench to a level at which the Eagles can compete with the rest of the ACC. I suspect that next season's Eagles will be ready to pull an upset or two, getting them to eight or nine ACC wins and a trip to the NCAA tournament.

Wake Forest (WNIT, top 16 seeds)

Results: Lost to Georgetown in the second round of the WNIT.

What Went Right: After years of frustration, the Deacs finally made it to postseason play. In addition to being anchored by senior stalwarts Corrine Groves and Alex Tchangoue, the Deacs got a lot of solid play out of young players like leaper Brittany Waters, waterbug Brooke Thomas and rangy wing Secily Ray. While the team lacked size, they made up for it with quickness, becoming a tough team to score on.

What Went Wrong: While it was great that Wake made it to the WNIT, the team was on the precipice of an NCAA berth. They started the year 14-0 but dropped league games to Virginia Tech, Clemson and NC State (twice). It didn't help that they lacked starting center Groves in several of those key games, but they just couldn't get it done against lesser teams. They righted the ship against NC State in the ACC Tournament and nearly pulled off a huge upset against Maryland but it was too little, too late. The Deacs got a bye for the first round of the WNIT, but then promptly lost at home to Georgetown in the second round, 61-72.

Next Season's Outlook: Wake's window may have closed, given that they're losing 27 ppg and 13 rpg -- on a team that didn't score a whole lot of points to begin with. Groves was the closest thing they had to a post presence, while Tchangoue's versatility made up for a number of glaring weaknesses. The good news is that Coach Mike Petersen pulled in a decent recruiting class (four top 100 players), and two of them are posts who will have an opportunity to play right away. Waters is poised to become a star, and there is improved quickness on this team. Still, this is not a team that was ready to beat anyone good last year, and I don't see that happening in 2009-10 either. Watch out for this group of players in two years; Wake could finally make the NCAA tournament then.

NC State

Results: No postseason play

What Went Right: Shayla Fields was the team's heart and soul and kept them in many games. Sharnise Beal and Nikitta Gartrell became dependable double-digit scorers. Bonae Holston was a surprise frosh find, contributing right away in terms of scoring and rebounding. After Kay Yow's death, a devastated roster plowed ahead as best as it could, giving every opponent their best shot -- the win over Virginia was a season highlight.

What Went Wrong: Obviously, the death of Kay Yow cast a pall over the team's season. Even a fully-stocked NC State team would have found it hard to compete at a high level after the death of their beloved coach, and this happened to be the thinnest, least talented NC State team in quite some time. There was no bench to speak of and no post presence. The team had to rely solely on their shooting and defense, and they were simply outgunned by most ACC opponents.

Next Season's Outlook: It's going to take a while to adjust to the hiring of Kelly Harper, given that everyone wanted Yow assistant Stephanie Glance to take the job. With Fields graduating, Harper won't have much to work with. A new coach can sometimes energize a roster; she can also alienate a team as she tries to adjust the players to her style. It'll be interesting to see which sort of coach Harper is, but in either event, next season will be a long one for the Wolfpack Women.

Miami

Results: No postseason play

What Went Right: Shenise Johnson was ACC rookie of the year, and fellow frosh guard Riquna Williams also proved to be a keeper. Epiphany Woodson followed up a solid rookie campaign with a good sophomore showing. Miami started to become more competitive toward the end of the year, despite winning just two league games.

What Went Wrong: Johnson was the team's only double-digit scorer. The team had no consistent post presence. Johnson, Woodson and Williams were the only true ACC-quality players on the team.

Next Season's Outlook: Katie Meier is slowly starting to add some pieces to her team. Forward Morgan Stroman will receive immediate playing time as a frosh and will hope to balance out the perimeter talent of the team's current Big Three. A healthy Ashly Sours could be the athlete the team needs in the post. At the moment, there's reason to be intrigued but this team is far from being ready to win in the ACC. Meier will need more from last year's frosh class as well as her new crop of players to become competitive. There will be a lot of bad teams in the league next year, so if Johnson makes the leap to superstar, the 'Canes could surprise.

Virginia Tech

Results: No postseason play

What Went Right: Despite being seriously undermanned, coach Beth Dunkenberger managed to keep her Hokies competitive. Role players Utahya Drye and Lindsay Biggs became double-digit scorers, while several new and underused players also stepped up. Rising junior Brittany Gordon had some bright moments in the pivot, while Alabama transfer Nikki Davis provided some nice scoring punch off the bench. Rising soph Shanel Harrison displayed some much-needed quickness and physicality. VT was very close to having a winning season, against all odds.

What Went Wrong: When you start off a season with two double-digit scorers getting knocked out of commission, it's hard to recover. Sharpshooter Brittany Cook tore her ACL, while athletic wing Andrea Barbour left the team. The Hokies simply didn't have the size, talent or skills to seriously compete in the ACC.

Next Season's Outlook: Cook decided to end her career, but VT will only lose point guard Laura Haskins, a player of limited ability. Veteran forward Amber Hall will return from injury, bolstering VT's frontline. With a much more experienced team and the possibility of a large frosh class having an impact, Virginia Tech has a shot at a winning season and a potential WNIT berth. They could even finish as high as eighth in the ACC.

Clemson

Results: No postseason play

What Went Right: Wing Lele Hardy became a bona fide star, the sophomore class started to demonstrate more potential, and the Tigers may well have found a true starting center in Shaniqua Pauldo, who went off in Clemson's ACC tournament first-round upset of Georgia Tech.

What Went Wrong: Other than Hardy, Clemson's upperclassmen significantly underachieved this year. In a season where the bottom of the ACC was so weak, this was Clemson's time to strike, and they blew it. Hardy had no one step up as a regular secondary scorer, much less a third option. The Tigers' post game was easily overwhelmed and foul prone. There was no consistency or cohesion.

Next Season's Outlook: Once again, the Tigers have a chance to move up in the ACC rankings. They return everyone but guard Tasha Taylor, who was a shadow of her past self last season after knee surgery. In order to really contend, they'll need Whitney Hood to become a consistent double-digit scorer at forward; they'll need Pauldo to become a solid defensive presence and rebounder; they'll need Sthefany Thomas and Kirstyn Wright to become consistent long-range shooters; and they'll need better point guard play. That could mean redshirt senior Christy Brown (if she bounces back from last season) or frosh Keyrra Gillespie. Hardy could make all the difference for the Tigers next season, because she gives them the star power that other low-level ACC squads lack. If the Tigers can't achieve a winning record with Hardy as a senior, don't be surprised if this becomes Coach Christy McKinney's final year.


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