And despite finishing 2004 just one game short of the WNBA Finals, that's where the Sacramento Monarchs find themselves as they head into the 2005 season. Yolanda Griffith, now 35, is still a dominant player, but she couldn't help but notice that veterans Edna Campbell (now with San Antonio), Ruthie Bolton (likely to be kicked upstairs into community relations) and Lady Grooms (pregnant) are no longer with the team. Tangela Smith, the second leading scorer, was traded for a second-year player who struggled big-time as a rookie, and point guard Ticha Penicheiro, who turns 31 in September, is clearly never going to elevate her game beyond good-pass, no-shoot.

So Griffith made it plain that she was willing, if not eager, to move on, and serious talks with New York ensued -- but not surprisingly, Carol Blazejowski was unable to pull the trigger on a deal, and coach/general manager John Whisenant couldn't get enough value in return to justify trading Griffith.

It's possible that Griffith could still be moved, which would give the Monarchs a new, and presumably younger, look, but unless some team is willing to up the ante from its previous offers, expect the 14.5 ppg/7.2 rpg Griffith back in purple this summer.

The new star on the team, if all goes according to plan, will be Nicole Powell, the third overall pick in 2004, who did almost nothing as rookie in Charlotte last year. She averaged just 12.4 mpg, scored just 4.3 ppg, and shot just 41.3% after being a spectacular point forward at Stanford. But Powell never found a position for the Sting, but in Sacramento, she's been handed the starting job at small forward, where she's expected to make threes and do her best to guard someone.

If Powell delivers from the perimeter, Griffith's pessism may turn out to be unfounded, and the Monarchs could be just as formidable as last year. On the other hand, if Powell tanks, then Sacramento could find itself passed up by previous patsies Phoenix and Minnesota, and perhaps miss the playoffs entirely.

If that happens, the notoriously irascible Griffith is unlikely to enjoy Central California's long hot summer, and Whisenant could have his hands full just keeping the team on track. As always, though, winning is cure for just about everything, and if Sacramento gets a strong performance from Powell and competes with Seattle and L.A. for the top spot in the West, it would be no surprise if the Monarchs wound up in the Western Conference finals for the second straight season.

Point guard: The pick of Kristin Haynie in the first round, and positive spin on that selection, may lead some to believe that the Ticha Penicheiro era is about to end in California's capital -- but don't bet the rent. Penicheiro remains a tremendous floor leader (4.9 apg, 2.3 A/TO) and is an underrated defender. She's a limited scorer, but she did make 33.8% of her threes last season, and hit 71.4% of her free throws. She's a big, strong, veteran point guard who will run the show as long as she's healthy. Haynie, who's shorter, weaker and less experienced, also isn't a scorer (each scored 10.8 ppg her senior year in college), and will only play if Penicheiro gets hurt. And if Penicheiro does get hurt, it's pretty much all over for the Monarchs. Without her to get the ball to Powell, Griffith and Kara Lawson, Sacramento would fade right out of the playoffs.

Shooting guard: With the departure of Campbell and Bolton, Kara Lawson will put down the mike and take over at the two. She had a decent rookie year (8.6 ppg, 38.1% from three), as long as the Monarchs didn't try to make her into a point guard. She's a 5-7 shooting guard, but an immensely strong one, and paired with Penicheiro, is fine in the backcourt. (Paired with Haynie, though, the Monarchs immediately become very small on the perimeter.) Lawson's primary improvement, though, should come on defense, and if she can hold her on there, she'll get enough minutes to average at least double figures, and be one of the top long-distance shooters in the league. Behind Lawson? Well, Miao Lijie is one of the best shooters in China, which is probably like being one of the best table-tennis players in America. That's nice and all, but the world stage is a big larger, and more competitive. There's no indication that Miao can play in the WNBA, especially given the success rate of Asian players so far. (Remember Michiko Hagiwara? Thought so ...) Third-round draft pick Anne O'Neill is a great three-point shooter and was considered a superstar coming out of high school, but she has to beat out returnee Guiliana Mendiola to earn a roster spot. In short, Lawson better stay healthy.

Small forward: There will be no excuses this year. As a rookie, Powell was forced to play out of position at the four, and endured the frustration of Charlotte coach Trudi Lacey, who had scant patience for first-year mistakes. Now, Powell will be given every opportunity to score, and on defense, she will take the weaker of the opposition's two forwards. Presumably, this will allow her skills to shine, though in college, Powell needed the ball in her hands most of the team to create offense. With Penicheiro around, though, that won't happen, and Powell is going to have to show she can make plays off the ball as well. If she doesn't, Whisenant can bring in Hamchetou Maiga, a solid defender with no outside game, move Walker or Rebekkah Brunson outside, or hope another Chinese, Sui Feifei, is the real deal. In other words, it's Nicole or bust ...

Power forward: After a year out of position at small forward, DeMya Walker will go back to the four, where she can use her size and quickness to generate points inside. With Smith and Griffith sharing the floor with her last year, she didn't have room to operate, even though she's not a great scorer in the best of circumstances. But there's no question Walker is a legitimate starter in the league, and at 27, she's in her prime. Backing her up will be Rebekkah Brunson, who was drafted last year to become a small forward. 'One of the hardest things to do is to take a player who's played with her back to the basket and move her outside,' says Whisenant. It's not so much physical as mental: 'It's making decisions about when to pass, when to dribble and when to shoot.' Brunson, at 6-2, did not make the transition smoothly -- in fact, she finished the season back inside at the four, though Whisenant has hopes she can eventually move to the perimeter. 'Eventually,' however, won't be 2005, and Brunson will serve as an Energizer bunny off the bench with her powerful presence on the boards and occasional midrange jumper.

Center: Yolanda Griffith used to play 33 minutes a night with the intensity of a shark in blood-infested water. Now, at 35, she only flashes those teeth on occasion, but when the stars align, she is a game-changing defender and a force on the offensive boards. Even at her best, however, she was never a low-post scorer, and that's one of the limitations of her partnership with Penicheiro: Neither is a create-your-own-shot offensive power, and thus the Monarchs have always struggled in the halfcourt. Griffith, usually surly and now openly agitating for a trade, isn't exactly a locker-room leader, and if the Monarchs get off to a slow start ... well, it's not something Whisenant wants to contemplate. First off the bench will most likely be Olympia Scott-Richardson, who will turn 29 in August. Scott-Richardson has struggled of late due to injuries and pregnancy, but she might be capable of solid supporting minutes in the post. Of course, she's likely a lot better than Chantelle Anderson, the 6-6 number two overall pick in the 2003 draft, who shot just 39.1% from the field and who had fewer rebounds per minute than 6-1 wing Hamchetou Maiga. There are also a bunch of other posts in the camp, but their best chance to make the team is if salary cap concerns lead Sacramento to jettison Scott-Richardson and keep a cheaper player.

Coaching: John Whisenant had to learn the women's game on the job, and after a season and a half, he's settled into the league. He now knows the importance of training camp, and this year he'll have eight of his 11 in camp instead of six. Sadly, the missing trio will most likely be Penicheiro, Griffith and Walker, his three best players, so the Monarchs could start slowly again. But as WNBA coaches go, Whisenant is certainly competent, and as he's the general manager too, he most likely will last the season -- which gives him some leverage over the team. If the Monarchs get the conference finals again, though, it will be time to give Whisenant his due as one of the better coahces in the league.

In conclusion: It's simple: Nicole Powell has to deliver. If she does, this is a playoff team. If she doesn't, a disgruntled Griffith and an aging roster with no small forward spell disaster. Of course, the Monarchs have to stay healthy, and veteran teams usually have to deal with more injuries, so there's certainly an expectation that time will be lost to aches and pains along the way. Best case: Powell shoots and scores, and the Monarchs win a round in the playoffs. Worse case: Powell stiffs, Griffith sulks, Penicheiro gets hurt, and it's lottery time. Middle ground: A year-long battle for fourth followed by a first-round exit from postseason.

The long-range forecast, however, isn't quite as bright, for Griffith can't last much longer and if Penicheiro isn't on the downside of her career, she'll get there soon. For the Monarchs, and Whisenant, the future had better be now.

4/28/05