Indeed, the necessity of notching up those "W"s in alien arenas has proved so crucial to success in the West that the team the majority of WNBA GMs predicted pre-season would take the title currently finds itself in the conference's basement. The talent-loaded Los Angeles Sparks chalked up an impressive win over last year's league champs, the Detroit Shock, in LA's home opener -- their only home game to date. They then preceded to drop all four of their away games to find themselves the goat of the conference.
Thus far, only two Western Conference teams have managed to take any away games, and sure enough, both teams are near the top of the standings. Away games have became so crucial to a West team's fate that some could complain about the grossly uneven schedule that has LA, for example, playing the overwhelming majority of their games away until August. But then again, the shoe will be on the other foot later this year when the Sparks get a prolonged home stand while other teams are packing their rosters.
More about the Sparks' disappointing start, later. Let's take a look at how the conference shakes out two weeks into the season (stats and records are through games of June 19):
1. Phoenix (5-1)
To glance at the standings, one would assume the Mercury are on a roll. But all they have really accomplished thus far is to hold serve. In five home wins, they scored 89 points or better in victory. They were held to just 71 points, however in their one defeat. The difference? The loss came in the Mercury's sole road game to date, at Sacramento, who handed the Merc a 90-71 shellacking at Arco Arena. (The following night, Sacramento came calling in Phoenix, where the Mercury prevailed at home, 115-104 in overtime.
What can we say about how the Merc will fare once forced to take their show on the road? Essentially, though a few faces have changed, 2009 brings back the same, a team reliant on pushing the ball just as in recent years.
Temeka Johnson appears to be more aggressive in attacking the basket than her Mercury point guard predecessor Kelly Miller, now with the Lynx. Maybe Johnson will prove worth the 2010 first-round pick the Mercury gave up to the Sparks in order to land Johnson! Johnson certainly made a statement last night when she posted 18 points (second only to Cappie Pondexter and more than any Sparks player) against the team that sent her packing.
The biggest differences between the 2009 Mercury and that of late last season are a healthy Tangela Smith and fresh reinforcements in the form of fleet-footed DeWanna Bonner. The Auburn product was made for the Mercury's system and is a candidate for Rookie-of-the-Year honors, averaging 13.3 ppg through six contests. How she would do in more traditional WNBA offenses where her extremely thin build might be more of a liability remains a question.
Like last year, rebounding remains a Phoenix weak point as undersized Le’Coe Willingham is essentially the only bulk the Mercury has in the middle. In the recent home win against the Sparks, the Mercury was out-rebounded 48 to 29 (22 to 5 on the offensive).
Most nights that will get you beat! So far the Mercury M.O. of scoring a lot and giving up a little less has been working.
But while some things change, others remain the same. Not surprisingly Phoenix is led in scoring by the dynamic duo of Diana Taurasi and Cappie Pondexter, the best perimeter one-two punch in the league.
If Phoenix discovers a way to realize success on the road similar to that at home, then upgrade them to a championship contender. Otherwise, the Mercury may find their stay atop the West short-lived.
2. Seattle (4-2)
Storm fans should be smiling for several reasons. Seattle has banked road wins at Sacramento and Minnesota (giving up road losses to Indiana and Chicago), while staying perfect at home. Split the road and win at home and there is a very good chance your club will finish at the top of the conference.
Does Seattle's success to date mean the Storm are really the best in the West to date? The answer may well be, "Yes."
After a mediocre (by her prodigious standards) winter campaign in Moscow, Lauren Jackson is off to an MVP-like start this season, averaging 23.2 points per game. Also good news, an apparently healthySwin Cash seems to have recaptured her ability to score from the perimeter.
As anticipated, Sue Bird is playing more off guard this season due to the arrival of Shannon Johnson. But while one might have expected PeeWee's appearance at the point to spell more rest for Bird or to unleash her scoring potential when playing in tandem with Johnson (who would assume ball distribution responsibilities), neither has proven to be true. Bird is seeing more than her average time on the floor, and her 11.2 point-per-game production this season is slightly off her career average of 12.5 points per game. What has increased are Bird's assists (6.6 per game in 2009, as compared to a career average of 5.5 dishes per game). Unfortunately, so too, have her turnovers (3.2 per game this year versus a career average of 2.82 turnovers per game). This spells an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.06 this season, a hair worse than Bird's 1.95 career assist-to-turnover average.
Seattle is getting help from other other sources. Tanisha Wright, although an erratic offensive player, is a solid defender and overall perhaps a little underrated. After a slow start, Janell Burse has boosted her average up to seven points per game.
Making less of an impact are rookie Ashley Walker, who showed well in the pre-season but is buried in Seattle's deep pile of six post players, and Suzy Batkovic-Brown, who has arrived from Australia but been no factor to date.
On the whole, Seattle is getting it done on defense. Through their first six games, the Storm led the league in fewest points allowed. Yet they rank near the bottom in rebounding margin, which must be troubling to Coach Brian Agler, especially given what he has to work with.
Regardless, with two perennial All-Stars to lead the way, another playoff run appears on course for the Storm.
3. Minnesota (4-3)
Not too many days ago, Lynx fans were thinking championship run. Now, even making the playoffs will be a major accomplishment.
Losing superstar Seimone Augustus (perhaps the best middle-distance shooter in the women’s game) to a season-ending knee injury in Phoenix hurts in multiple ways. With Augustus out, veteran journeyman Roneeka Hodges appears to be the line-up replacement.
Obviously, the Lynx' best player is lost for the season and, unlike Indiana who waived reserve center Yolanda Griffith after an Achilles tear ended her season, Minnesota is not going to be waiving Augustus. So the Lynx play with just 10 on the roster from here on.
When the Lynx traded for Kelly Miller, they must have decided they would be more of a running team similar in strategy to the Mercury. That strategy may now have to be thrown out the window as, with Augustus absent, it is unlikely the Lynx can match point totals in the 80s or higher.
Another note of concern for Minnesota's front-office: The Lynx' starters have for the most part more than held up their part of the bargain in achieving the record that places them third in the Conference standing. However, the bench appears weaker than last year, counting heavily on rookies Renee Montgomery, Quanitra Hollingsworth and Rashanda McCants. None has shown any consistent production to date.
With suspect defense, particularly inside, and less scoring punch, can Minnesota avoid another trip to the lottery? To do so, the Lynx' 2008 class of Candice Wiggins (#3), Nicky Anosike (#16) and Charde Houston (#30), easily the greatest WNBA three-player draft of this century, will have to step up. All are already starting and are major Lynx contributors but more will likely be required of them with Augustus out. Wiggins' outside shot remains erratic and penetrating and getting to the foul line seems to be her most productive offensive contribution. Anosike, known for missing bunnies at Tennessee, was expected to make her biggest contributions on defense and in rebounding. She has boosted her scoring to 13.5 points per game (up from her career average of 9.9 points per game). But is Anosike really now a better finisher or will she return to previous form before much more of the season passes?
Houston, an enigma at UCONN, started strongly last year before cooling off. She seems to have added range to go with her drive from the top of the key and could be a "Most Improved" candidate.
Veteran post Christi Thomas moved over from Los Angeles, has the ability to contribute, but she has yet to step out of the doldrums and contribute.
Two more open questions: How will Minnesota fare in the player personnel department with Roger Griffith once again taking command of all personnel moves now that former VP of Operations Angela Taylor and former coach Don Zierden have both moved on to DC? The Lynx say Griffith has always had the final word on personnel matters since Brian Agler's departure, but that was with a heavy dose of input from the head coaches.
Also, did you notice long-time Clemson coach Jim Davis on the bench?
Another long summer could be in the offing for Lynx fans unless a plan B, which must include more defense, can be developed.
4. San Antonio (1-2)
Surviving June continues to be the Silver Stars prime objective. The best thing Silver Star fans can point to is that their favorites have played in just three games in this season’s first two weeks. Indeed, some have yet to arrive at the Alamo.
Becky Hammon should miss a maximum of two more games due to her commitment to the Russian National team (finished second) in the Eurobasket Championship in Latvia. World-class post Ann Wauters is on sabbatical until July. Recently, Vicki Johnson missed time due to a death in her family. Shanna Crossley looks a bit less mobile than before her knee injury.
For now, Ruth Riley will have to step up from being more than a role player. When the team gets everybody present, the Stars will likely live or die offensively on the performances of Hammon, Wauters and Sophia Young, who is probably their best two-way player.
One troubling point is that rebounding, not strong last year, appears to be an area for concern again this year. Rookie Megan Frazee seems to be on track to be the cut when Wauters gets activated. If the Stars fall just short of the playoffs, they may well be pointing to their short-handed June days.
5. Sacramento (1-4)
Like Detroit in the East, the Monarchs did not start the season at 100% as Kara Lawson, Rebekkah Brunson and DeMya Walker were not fully ready out of the gate. Then, add in Ticha Penicheiro’s recent thumb injury.
On a more positive note, sophomore Laura Harper has shown signs (be they erratic) of improvement in her second WNBA campaign. Fellow sophomore Crystal Kelly, is a hard worker in the paint, but has not stepped up her production and was removed from the starting line-up.
Most disturbing for Sacramento fans is the vaunted Monarch defense, which ranks poorly (one of three worst) in points allowed. Yes, they have scored well (against soft Mercury and Lynx defenses at home) but gotten out of character with defensive shortcomings. Wings Chelsea Newton and Scholanda Robinson are supposed to be about the D. Brunson, Lawson, Powell and (if ever well) Walker are supposed to be the scorers. Courtney Paris continues to work to get in better shape and then get more time.
According to the theory of "win-at-home," the Monarchs are behind the Sparks, due to home losses to Seattle and Minnesota. The Sparks' slate is clean in that area, L.A. having protected their home court. (In reality, however, Sacramento is spared from the bottom of the West's barrel bottom by virtue of the tie breaker -- while tied in overall records (1-4), the Monarchs are ahead in conference play at 1-4, whereas the Sparks have lost both their conference games.
6. Los Angeles (1-4)
See how the mighty have fallen? Fear not, Sparks’ fans! It is difficult to see how a team with this kind of talent can be faring so poorly. But better days lie ahead, though the road may be bumpy in the short term. Even if the Sparks' first half sees them miles away from the top of the standings, their position should improve greatly before the regular season ends.
Not only will the Sparks welcome back MVP Candace Parker in July but the back half of their season is heavy to home games. All the losses to date have been on the road so “serve” has not yet been broken.
One of the biggest issues for the Sparks remains the rotation at point guard and the integration of Betty Lennox at shooting guard. On the whole, Lennox has started the season on the plus side (but should she be taking the most shots as a general rule?). As for point guards, Kristi Harrower looks to be the “Steady Eddie,” mostly looking to set up half-court offense, while back-ups Noelle Quinn (who also backs up DeLisha Milton-Jones at small forward) and Shannon Bobbitt look to push the ball more.
Both Tina Thompson and Milton-Jones seem off to strong seasons. Lisa Leslie, the odds-on favorite for this year's MVP in a preseason poll of WNBA GMs, has not appeared in MVP-like form. Leslie is a quality player; indeed, she may be the best of all-time when you look at her entire body of work. But she was not the Sparks' best player last year and despite sentimentality, she probably won’t be this year. Even the “greats” get old!
When Parker returns, don’t be surprised if Coach Michael Cooper tinkers with her at point guard to put all four of his stars on the court at once. Also, given their size and length, the Sparks might play more zone than would otherwise be expected of a WNBA squad.
In the end, how close the Sparks come to winning the title may hinge on just how rapidly Parker can re-gain her 2008 MVP form. The track record for pro women coming back from child birth indicates it is a slower process than one might think as there appears to be a complex interplay of physical, mental and emotional factors involved in such comebacks.