Going into the 2009 season, there's a lot of good news (for a change)!
What's in Your Closet?
Before breaking down the individual teams, one news flash deals with what the players will be wearing as they take to the floor. Initially, the Phoenix Mercury announced a $1 million dollar per year marketing partnership for the next three years with LifeLock, an identity theft protection firm. As part of the deal, Mercury players will wear the LifeLock name on the front of their jerseys and warm-up suits.
What this does is instantly remove the Mercury from the endangered franchise list. (Of course, it also puts the kabash on the old team-spirit saw about the name on the front of the player's jersey being more important than the name on back of the jersey.)
Even more recently, the Los Angeles Sparks (not on my endangered list) struck a similar deal (no monetary value mentioned) with Farmers Insurance Group. “As part of this innovative alliance, the Farmers Insurance name and logo will appear on the front of the Sparks jerseys and will have considerable visibility in the STAPLES Center during home games,” to quote the WNBA release.
At the risk of WNBA basketball players being mistaken for European soccer pros, let’s hope many more of the teams can strike similar deals. (This concept of corporate logo sales is very popular in Europe. I'm told Manchester United sports the logo of AIG on its jerseys--leading to no end of catcalls and brickbats having little to do with events on the pitch.) It could provide significant financial cushion, particularly for weak WNBA franchises. I’m still concerned about Indiana (due to owner public comments) and Detroit (due to weak economic conditions in the state of Michigan).
High Def and Internet Coverage
Another big development is that most games will be on the internet if not on television. Though the televised games will be fewer in number, the WNBA has announced that ESPN2 and ABC will present their entire WNBA schedule in high definition -- that includes 13 regular season games, the All Star game, and up to 15 post-season telecasts, starting with Saturday's season opener between the defending champion Detroit Shock and the Los Angeles Sparks. Still, I’m not crazy about the reduction in televised games. However, if you have good high speed internet, the WNBA fan is probably coming out ahead.
LA-Detroit Start to Finish? So Say the GMs
Speaking of Detroit and L.A., WNBA.com's annual survey of General Managers looks for a Detroit-LA final, with 42% of the GMs predicting the Sparks will win their third WNBA title this season. Detroit was the overwhelming favorite (67%) to finish atop the Eastern Conference again this year, and Detroit and last year's Western Conference Champions, the San Antonio Silver Stars, were tied as the GMs' second favorite choice to win it all this season, each receiving 17% of the votes.
It may be sentimentality, but Lisa Leslie, who has announced her intention to call it quits this season, received 42% of the GMs' votes to win MVP honors this season. Other MVP contenders, in the GMs' estimation: the Seattle Storm's Lauren Jackson (17%); and Seimone Augustus of the Minnesota Lynx and Tamika Catchings of the Indiana Fever, who tied for third with 8% of the vote apiece.
The GMs were all tied up over whether Atlanta Dream forward Angel McCoughtry, drafted Number One overall, and the Mystics's Marissa Coleman, the number two draft pick, was most likely to wind up this season's Rookie of the Year, awarding each of the talented newcomers 27% of their votes.
Opening Day Rookies on Rosters
All 13 first-round picks stuck this year, as did four second- round picks, one third-round pick, plus one walk-on (Kristi Cirone of Illinois State who made the roster for the Connecticut Sun), for a total of 19 rookies. I had guessed 15, but originally did not allow for rookie players holding slots for veteran players arriving late from Europe.
Hot Free Agents
Look for some franchise to pick up Jessica Davenport, Anna Deforge (my guess, to Connecticut) and Lisa Willis.
Eleven-Player Rosters Hurt
As discussed below, the abbreviated rosters will make teams struggle some nights. A team can only add a player when it is down to eight, and the “hardship player” picked up must be cut when one of the injured players returns.
Now let’s get down to business!
Eastern Conference Preview
A quick look at the conference tells me to expect a tight race. The two recent expansion teams (Atlanta and Chicago) have gotten stronger as have the embattled Mystics. Meanwhile, last year’s leaders (Detroit and Connecticut) have issues out of the starting gate.
In alphabetical order:
Atlanta Dream
Marynell Meadors has done a massive make-over of the franchise. Only four players are back from last year. The most significant additions (assuming both have their heads in the game) should be superstar Chamique Holdsclaw and point guard Nikki Teasley. Collectively, the middle should be a lot stronger with the additions of Michelle Snow and Sancho Lyttle. Rookie Angel McCoughtry may be playing somewhat out of position -- she is really more 3F than 2G.
Several of the Dream roster have in the past experienced a variety of off-court issues which affected their on-court play. If the Dream is to make a serious run at the playoffs, all will need to stay focused on the matters at hand.
Kudos to Shalee Lehning for making the roster! I didn’t think she would. Now let’s see if her game really does translate to the pros.
Chicago Sky
If preseason is any indication, rookie Kristy Toliver will be settling for a “sixth man” role behind veteran point guard Dominique Canty. The best news is that Sylvia Fowles enters the season fully healthy and could be one of the most dominating players in the league if the Sky features her. From China, Chen Nan, at 6-6, appears ready to contribute as well. The Sky has also added Erin Thorn to help break zones.
The biggest question remains scoring from the small forward position where neither Armintie Price nor Brooke Wyckoff showed themselves to be consistent outside threats last year. The Sky should exceed last season’s 12 win total, but by how much?
Connecticut Sun
Some years I have looked at the Sun roster and questioned whether it is good enough to make the playoffs. However, one thing has remained constant over the years since the Sun came north from Orlando and that is Mike Thibault. During his tenure, he ranks, in this writer's opinion, as the best coach in the WNBA.
This year’s team produces great challenges as usual. First, Sandrine Gruda and Anete Jekabsone-Zagota will miss several games due to Eurobasket commitments. Amber Holt, seemingly improved off her winter in Europe, could be lost for the next month with a broken hand. Lack of bulk inside and perimeter shooting, particularly threes, could be issues. To start the season, the offense should be based around the trio of Asjha Jones, Lindsay Whalen and Tamika Whitmore.
The fact that much-travelled and much-cut Kiesha Brown was added late to the roster after being cut by the Washington Mystics early this week says a lot about Thibault’s perimeter concerns.
Kudos to walk-on Kristi Cirone for making the opening day roster in spite of a quiet pre-season statistically! Will she stick, however. Two players must go when Gruda and Jekabsone-Zagota arrive.
Detroit Shock
One thing about Coach/GM Bill Laimbeer is that he keeps things interesting, always hinting at another master move. Sometimes it turns out to be major as in getting Taj McWilliams-Franklin late last season, and sometimes it is minor, as in signing Kristen Rasmussen, now waived.
The Shock start their season with a passel of problems. Two former All-Stars are sidelined: Cheryl Ford is still recovering from her knee surgery and Kara Braxton will be serving a six-game league suspension in connection with her off-season guilty plea to operating a motor vehicle while under the influence of alcohol. This is the second DUI-related suspension for Braxton, who previously sat out two games without pay during the 2007 season.
The foregoing absences will put the well-traveled Barb Farris at center, backed up by Olayinka Sanni. The health of Plenette Pierson and Deanna Nolan, both of whom sustained injuries this winter in Europe, are also question marks. Only the opportunity to see them in action will tell how well they have healed.
A lot of weight rides on the shoulders of 35-year-old Katie Smith and 38-year-old Taj McWilliams-Franklin. One bright note in the Detroit preseason was the play of rookie Shavonte Zellous.
On paper, Detroit is the favorite to win the East, but there are plenty of “ifs.”
Indiana Fever
This is a team that starts with two prior league All-Stars (Tamika Catchings and Katie Douglas). Add in veterans Tamecka Dixon, Ebony Hoffman and Tammy Sutton-Brown and it appears Coach Lin Dunn has a solid nucleus to work with. Rookie Briann January is expected to start at point but look for veteran Tully Bevilaqua to get significant minutes as well.
Beyond that there are a lot of unproven players except for Yolanda Griffith, who says this will be her last year in the league. Rookie Christina Wirth, a 6-1 forward from Vanderbilt and a dark horse for many pundits prior to the draft, made the roster after a solid, albeit quiet, preseason performance.
Neither Douglas nor Catchings was at their best last year; indeed, Catchings was well off her career averages. For the Fever to have a good season, the number one key must be big years from Catchings and Douglas. With some contribution from Griffith, the role players, and the bench, perhaps the Fever can escape their perennial fate as "always the bridesmaids, never the bride."
New York Liberty
The Liberty is a team that has functioned by being competent in all positions without being truly great in any. Well, Janel McCarville could be seen as a star player though not very high in the pantheon. Over the years, the Liberty has often had to overcome questionable GM moves by Carol Blazejowski. The trade of Becky Hammon for ... whom (still on roster) was probably the most egregious. Many may question this year's swap of the Liberty's 2010 first-round pick for Sidney Spencer, as well, though Spencer as both her attributes and her supporters.
This year's team is not all that different in substance from the Liberty 2008. Hello, rookie Kia Vaughn, and goodbye, Jessica Davenport. Hello, Sidney Spencer, and goodbye, Erin Thorn and Lisa Willis. With point guard Loree Moore starting the year banged up, second-year point guard Leilani Mitchell will have to step up; natural off-guard Essence Carson will back up.
To the extent the Liberty has improved over last year, it is not the result of personnel changes. Their players are moving into their prime years as pros; that should be a plus. But given that Atlanta, Chicago and Washington are all better on paper, does this make New York worse?
Washington Mystics
As many of us were hoping, the Mystic management cleaned house, bringing in GM Angela Taylor and Coach Julie Plank from the Minnesota Lynx. The biggest player personnel move was installing Lindsey Harding at point guard. They also added Chastity Melvin up front and perimeter players Matee Ajavon (from the Comet dispersal) and draft pick Marissa Coleman.
Word out of DC is the team is playing much harder on defense than last year. A down note is that Tasha Humphrey may not be able to go out of the gate. Still, the perimeter is clearly better and if the Mystics can get enough out of the front line, a playoff berth is very possible.
Western Conference Preview
Los Angeles and Seattle look like the headliners. Sacramento is all about "D" and Phoenix is all about the "O." The West still has more star power but the gap is closing.
Los Angeles Sparks
Given the star power of the roster and especially that this is Lisa Leslie’s last season, the Sparks were the consensus pick by WNBA GMs to win it all. There are problems, however.
Obviously, Candace Parker will not start the season due to giving birth in May. Given past history in these matters, I would expect her back in July and back in peak form before the playoffs. Will rookie Lindsay Wisdom-Hylton be able to play the back-up small forward; otherwise who will fill that bill until Parker becomes active?
Ages as of start of the playoffs: Lisa Leslie - 37; Delisha Milton-Jones – 35; Tina Thompson – 34. That’s more than a bit of "maturity"!
Turning to the back court, the biggest issue again this year is at the point. Kristi Harrower (also 34) boasts the most experience; both Noelle Quinn and Shannon Bobbitt are unproven in the point guard role. The Sparks re-signed Spanish Olympian Marta Fernandez in late March after after a one-year absence, then cut her on Thursday in order to bring their roster to 11 while retaining the less experienced and inefficient Bobbitt. But Sparks Coach Michael Cooper never used Fernandez effectively in any event, wasting her explosive penetrating style. Of the remaining guards, can Marie Ferdinand-Harris, who had a subpar showing last season but has performed well in the preseason this year, return to the good form she showed early in her career? And how will veteran Betty Lennox, a newcomer to the Sparks, fit in with the superstar front line?
On another note, the Sparks face the imminent departure of Coach Cooper, bound for the college ranks University of Southern California at the end of the season. Supposedly, an assistant will tend to USC's recruiting while Cooper focuses his attention on his final season with the Sparks. But what subtle effects will his dual loyalties have as the season moves into September and college home visits start?
Yes, the Sparks should be a good team but there is a lot that can go wrong.
Minnesota Lynx
The biggest news was that Coach Don Zierden up and left to the NBA just a few days before the start of the season, leaving novice Jen Gillom in charge as head coach.
The team itself remains young but now has some experience to go with a generous amount of talent (Seimone Augustus and Candice Wiggins will be joined by rookie Renee Montgomery, the probable main point guard) on the perimeter. It will be interesting to see how Kelly Miller will perform in a more traditional offense, unlike Phoenix, and what role she will play vis-a-vis rookie Renee Montgomery. Miller got the start in the Lynx's one preseason outing, but Montgomery played more than twice the minutes and provided a substantially better stat line.
The problem remains that the inside is made up of two role players (center Christi Thomas and Italian forward Raffaella Masciadri) and a handful of unproven rookies and undistinguished second-year players. Of the group, expect the biggest the biggest role for Charde Houston at power forward with Nicole Ohlde off to Phoenix. First-round draft pick Quanitra Hollingsworth (Virginia Commonwealth) had a strong preseason, averaging 14 points in the 20 minutes she played in the Lynx one preseason game, but query how much impact she will have offensively in her rookie season?
In sum, the Lynx should be improved this year how much will translate into wins above the 16 total last year?
Phoenix Mercury
With two of the best players in the league in Diana Taurasi and Cappie Pondexter, the LifeLock banner carrier should not be without hope. Still, though the frontline may be tall, they're not that physically strong. The only real muscle in the group is undersized Le’Coe Willingham. None among rookie DeWanna Bonner, Nicole Ohlde (currently injured), Brooke Smith and Tangela Smith rank high in the brawn column. Phoenix will start the season with 10 available players thanks to the foot injury to Nicole Ohlde.
And, though it will not likely affect this year's outcome, with the team already well set in the back court, did the Mercury pay too much to LA by swapping a 2010 first-round pick for pint-sized point guard Temeka Johnson (the 2005 Rookie of the Year)? Reasonable minds will be debating that one well into 2011.
Sacramento Monarchs
No team has stood pat more than the Monarchs. All players who will suit up this season were on the roster last year except first-round draft pick Courtney Paris. Preseason reports on Paris indicate that she has been struggling against the taller, more agile WNBA posts, but that she is undergoing a rigorous program of conditioning under the supervision of Monarchs' trainers.
Unfortunately, that leaves a roster of the halt and the lame, at least to start the season. Rebekkah Brunson is not yet ready to go, still recovering from off-season knee surgery. Kara Lawson has been banged up (knee related) and has only recently started practicing with the team. Who is supposed to back up Ticha Penicheiro if Lawson is down?
Even at full strength, the roster is heavy on defenders (Chelsea Newton, Penicheiro and Scholanda Robinson) on the perimeter and light on outside shooters (Nicole Powell and Lawson). But then again, the Monarchs are all about the D. The system seems to work so if the team gets healthy soon, they should be in the playoff hunt.
San Antonio Silver Stars
Ann Wauters is not expected to return until around the beginning of July. That could cost the Stars a few games by itself. Megan Frazee (the Silver Stars' draft pick at #14) is likely holding down that slot until Wauters returns and will need to show some impact to avoid being waived at that time.
Coach/GM Dan Hughes added Australian guard Belinda Snell to the back court shore up the perimeter shooting. Shanna Crossley is back from her knee injury but did not shoot well during preseason contests.
For now, the heavy lifting on offense must be done by Sophia Young and Becky Hammon (who will miss a couple of games to play for Russia in the Eurobasket Championships in Latvia). Hammon did not have a big winter season playing in Moscow. For San Antonio to have a year close to last season’s 24 wins, Hammon will have to shine.
(And, just inIn case anyone is struggling with the roster, Erin Perperoglou is the former Erin Buescher. The WNBA's Most Improved Player of 2006 was married during the off-season to Greek professional basketball player Stratos Perperoglou).
Seattle Storm
Coach Brian Agler prepared for this season under the premise that the Storm might not have Lauren Jackson back. The team drafted power forward Ashley Walker out of University of California Berkeley with their number 12 pick. Walker, the first Cal player drafted into the WNBA, had a strong preseason, averaging 11 points and 8.5 boards in 23 minutes per game in the Storms' two preseason outings. Walker stuck, and looks to be able to make a real contribution in her rookie season.
With the return of Janell Burse and Suzy Batkovic-Brown, not to mention Jackson, to the active roster, the front line is now very deep. The problem is that the Storm is a guard short with only starters Sue Bird and Tanisha Wright plus veteran Shannon Johnson as back-up point and reserve Katie Gearlds at wing. (Johnson was said to have been brought aboard to give Bird the chance for some rest, but look for Bird to play more off-guard this season when she is being paired with Johnson.)
Small forward Swin Cash is supposed to be healthy but has been brought along slowly this spring coming back from off-season back surgery.
If the Storm is to win it all, they will need a big year (or at least a big finish) out of Jackson, who was subpar in Moscow this winter (by her high standards_, settling for too many threes. Last summer, the Storm showed they can win games without Jackson, but couldn’t get by the Sparks in the playoffs without her.
Putting It All on the Line
Predictions made this early in the season are worth about the paper they're written on. Injuries will likely decide outcome in the end. But because I must:
East:
1. Detroit
2. Connecticut
3. Indiana
4. Washington
5. New York
6. Chicago
7. Atlanta
Playoffs: Detroit over Washington; Connecticut over Indiana
Eastern Conference Championship: Detroit over Connecticut
Comments: I don’t see Atlanta as a playoff team, even though they may be much improved. The other six should be in a close race. For Detroit, right now it is all about health!
West:
1. Los Angeles
2. Seattle
3. Sacramento
4. Minnesota
5. San Antonio
6. Phoenix
Playoffs: LA over Minnesota; Seattle over Sacramento
Western Conference Championship: LA over Seattle
Comments: Given how close numbers four through six were-6 last year, no order of finish would surprise me after the first two. If LA or Seattle don’t make the playoffs, that would be a shocker to me.
Final: LA over Detroit
MVP: Diana Taurasi (best season though her team will struggle)
ROY: Renee Montgomery
COY: Julie Plank