One of the biggest danger signals is already yesterday's news -- the cutting of rosters from 13 to 11 players per team. That move was relatively painless -- unless, of course, you were one of the players who lost or will lose your job to the cuts or are a college senior trying to establish a career in the league.
But there are other more subtle -- or at the very least, less publicized-- signs that do not bode well for the league's future. Among the bearish indicators for long-term WNBA success.:
1. The pre-draft camp, while not that worthwhile and generating plenty of talent miss-evaluations, was still a WNBA showcase event, particularly when held at the Final Four. To cancel indicates serious financial concerns. Companies not concerned about money often throw serious amounts around like loose change. That the league cuts this and almost all official appearance at the Final Four should not go unnoticed.
2. Expect more cost cutting by teams during the season with regard to travel parties. Road entourages are unlikely to be as big as they have been in the past. When franchises seemingly doomed to continue to lose money start to watch dollars and cents, those are further signs that worse things could be down the road in the near future. The tap may not be running dry but spare cash sounds less readily available.
3. Remember all the hoopla last year about ESPN/ABC starting to pay to televise WNBA games? Yes, the league is receiving modest compensation, but ABC has cut its number of televised WNBA games to one, while ESPN will have about the same number as last year. So what does this say about their desire to be involved with the WNBA? Simply, unlike the NBA, the WNBA game does not sufficiently sell on television.
4. Perhaps a trivial change, but still an adverse sign is the disappearance of the WNBA Draft Game. Each spring before the draft, internet fans could sign up and try to guess each team’s first-round pick. The winner got a free trip I believe to the next year’s draft. That expense, as minimal as it was, has been cancelled and was replaced this year with a WNBA Auction. One person bid $400 and won the right to attend the draft and meet potential draftees the night before. The cost of travel to New York City was not included in the bid.
5. At the recent WNBA 2009 Draft in New Jersey, Ms. Donna was asked how the WNBA was coping with the national economic slowdown. As is typical for her, she discussed the product and that WNBA games were cheap entertainment. She did not actually answer the question but her tone was more subdued than I can remember in recent years.
On the franchise level…
6. In the ongoing battle to extract a better arena deal in Indianapolis, one of the owners stated that the Fever has been losing money for a number of years and that the present commitment is only for this coming year with management looking for increased paid attendance and more corporate sponsorship. Good luck in a time when companies are hurting nationally and tightening belts! The Fever goes on my watch list effective immediately.
7. Reports have surfaced on the internet that the reigning WNBA champion Detroit Shock is having trouble getting any of its games broadcast on local television. Add in the economic woes of the state of Michigan, troubles with Piston economics and the passing of supportive owner Bill Davidson, and he sum puts the future of even the three-time league-champion Shock in open question. If you can’t sell a champion, what can you do to make the WNBA work in the economically depressed Detroit area?
8. Recent reports had Cory Gaines looking into the possibility of “doubling” as Phoenix Mercury head coach during the summer and as an assistant to newly hired Oregon Ducks (and Gaines' mentor) Women’s Coach Paul Westhead. However, this could not be worked out. More recently, Los Angeles Sparks Coach Michael Cooper has informed the ownership that he is talking with the University of Southern California about their recent women’s basketball coaching vacancy, and reliable sources within the USC athletic department have told Full Court that Cooper's selection is a done deal and that a final announcement is awaiting only the selection of the remainder of his coaching staff. Granted, a move to collegiate coaching may be an upgrade in pay but it is also a year-round job.
9. A move may be afoot to decrease the size of assistant coaching staffs. That may make a certain amount of sense in light of the smaller rosters, but as a cost-cutting device, something would likely have to give -- whether in scouting, recruiting, or quality of play.
10. Sacramento’s men’s team (the Kings) has been struggling at the gate with the joke that some Kings crowds more resemble a decent Monarchs crowd (say 7,000) than what the Kings have traditionally drawn. The Maloof family, which owns these teams, has been angling for a new arena with no success to date. The Monarchs are not really the problem but could be a victim of affairs surrounding the Kings that may endanger the future of both teams -- at least in Sacramento. And it's not like the WNBA has a lengthy list of new venues with predictable attendance prospects of 7,000 per game or better.
The Houston thing…
11. A number of articles written after the Comets’ demise hypothesize that the collapse of this cornerstone WNBA team foreshadows the end of the league just around the corner. As we have written elsewhere, the fate of the Comets had more to do with “matters Houston” than with the rest of the league. But the inability or unwillingness of the WNBA to find a new owner or move the team elsewhere is a league-level issue, which could end up gravely affecting one or more franchises after this season.
While on the subject of the Houston Comets, many internet posters remain bitter at former Comets' owner Les Alexander for "dumping" the team by selling to Hilton Koch, who quickly proved to be in way over his head. Alexander did not like the women’s game and viewed the Comets as a business venture pure and simple. He let the Comets continue to operate for three years in the red before pulling the plug, having warned the organization a year earlier that would happen if Comet finances did not improve, and they didn’t. Would you continue to lose several hundred thousand dollars a year (and that might be conservative) on a project if you didn’t enjoy being involved with it?
Many Comet fans seem to feel it was Alexander’s duty to keep the Comets going so that they would have the pleasure of watching the team. The “cheap lunches” ended for these fans and they remain bitter! The same thing could be said for the WNBA and women’s basketball fans in general. They want good entertainment on the cheap (as close to zero as possible).
"It's the economy, stupid…"
12. It is no secret that the economy is in less than sterling condition. Some, comparing WNBA ticket prices to the out-of-sight price tags at NBA games anywhere south of the nosebleeds, believe the WNBA's cheap entertainment might flourish in these down economic times. If so, great!
If not and things get worse, however, look out! The cheap entertainment formula did not work well for women's college conference tournament and NCAA tournament attendance. The problem extends to other women's sports as well. Women's golf is losing tournaments this year and worries about further reductions next year as more sponsorships come up for renewal.
While WNBA "paper figures" try to show up-trends in league attendance, the reality is not there. Even granting some uptick in television viewership in the last few years, financial self sufficiency has been a goal "around the corner" for quite a long time. Like the economy as a whole, it now appears the time may be at hand for the WNBA to put its financial house in order.
13. Closely elated to the foregoing point, the Phoenix, Chicago and Atlanta ownerships have heavy ties to real estate, hardly a thriving sector in this economy. Those whose pockets have shrunk while bleeding green in the real estate department and elsewhere in this economy may be less willing than before to nurture charitable impulses toward women's hoops.
14. From what I have heard, the Chicago and Atlanta franchises were bought on the cheap up front. Kind of “buy it, try it,” with heavier money due later. Would Hilton Koch have walked away so readily if he was that heavily invested in the Comets?
15. Many observers believe that, at a minimum, the league will experience even more contraction over the next few years. That may remedy may be in order, as in some cases at least, expansion seems to have come too fast. But the question persists as to how many franchises would be needed for the WNBA to continue to exist.
I would guess no fewer than eight, but that may be too small a number for Mr. Stern’s ego. Stern has seen to it that the NBA put a lot toward its “little sister’s” livelihood, particularly in the early years. For that reason and probably the ego surrounding his own legacy, he will try to keep the WNBA going if at all possible. One perk that might keep the league operating on at least a minimal basis is that the NBA brass enjoys having a controlling interest in the winning dynasty that is the U.S. National/Olympic women’s team and that would cease if the WNBA no longer existed.
So what might signal an abrupt end to the WNBA? One should watch for any marked decrease in corporate sponsorship at the league level or for the sudden departure of WNBA brass, particularly Ms. Orender, who, I understand, makes big bucks in her present post.
What can the supporters of women's hoops do to forestall such an outcome? Sadly, some of you who are reading this may wish to attend more games but your budget says "cut back." If you know people who are casual fans of the league, encourage them to take in a game this year. Expect better play with the one less franchise and talent more densely distributed among the teams. Perhaps this league was only meant to operate with 12 teams for optimal play. (I’m just hoping there will be that many next year.)
Besides the economic backdrop, one of the biggest problem holding back true WNBA fan growth continues to be that women in general seem to care relatively little about the WNBA. Sadly, this seems to be true even of those who played the game in high school and college below the elite level.
This is a sport without a living history except to a very few. I happened to see Katie Smith hanging around at the 2008 WBCA High School All-Star game at the Final Four last April in Tampa. I think we can agree Katie is clearly one of the all-time greats of the game. People were walking past her like she was just another fan!
To league supporters, I say it is time to get out the vote (i.e., fill more seats with paying customers in 2009). This year’s slogan: Help keep the WNBA alive! Come to a game in 2009!