It's a Wrap! The Final Bubble Wrap of 2009

Conference championships have now been settled. Nothing more can be done to improve one's win-loss record or RPI. The only things left are hopes and regrets as teams on the bubble await the verdict of the NCAA Women's Division I Tournament Selection Committee. For those who just can't wait for the opening of the proverbial envelope, Full Court's Jim Carson brings you his final Bubble Wrap.

The last of the women's conference tournaments wrapped up last night and in addition to establishing the identities of the 31 teams who will receive automatic bids to this year's Big Dance, these contests played a huge role in the winnowing process. For one thing, several of our bubble teams, particularly in the mid-majors, did their cohorts a favor by wrapping up their conference championships--thereby leaving the contest for one of the few remaining at large bids.

Others, teams that were clinging to a last shred of hope for an NCAA tournament appearance, shot themselves in the foot with poor performances and all but ended their candidacies. And a few, but not many, marginally improved their chances.

With 31 places on the dance card reserved for the conference champions, and 26 of the remaining 33 at-large bids already spoken for by "locks," we see 16 bubble teams still standing who have any hope at all of finding their way through to one of the seven remaining available at-large bids.

Let's take a final look at how things stand, by conference.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	MARYLAND (RPI 3)

LOCKS

DUKE (RPI 5)	NORTH CAROLINA (RPI 11)

FLORIDA STATE (RPI 12)	VIRGINIA (RPI 19)	GEORGIA TECH (RPI 35)

ACC BUBBLES

This week the field of ACC bubble teams has been cut to just one, as Wake Forest drops out of the picture:

	BOSTON COLLEGE
CONFERENCE	ACC
RECORDS
OVERALL	20-11
CONFERENCE ONLY	7-7
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	40
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	32
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	10-7
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	3-7
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	2-8
BEST WINS	@Georgia Tech (65-64 OT); TCU (77-68)
WORST LOSSES	@St. John's (63-72); @Wake Forest (48-52)
REMAINING GAMES

Outlook:

Boston College followed the chalk in the ACC Tournament, beating Miami and falling to Florida State in the quarters. The Eagles didn't do anything terrible, except losing at home by 48 to Notre Dame, but there isn't a real signature win either, so there are some nervous ladies in Chestnut Hill.

AMERICA EAST CONFERENCE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	VERMONT (RPI 121)

The America East has no locks and no teams on the bubble.

ATLANTIC 10 CONFERENCE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	CHARLOTTE (RPI 39)

LOCKS

XAVIER
(RPI 24)

ATLANTIC 10 BUBBLES

With Charlotte moving from bubble to lock and now to automatic bid status, that leaves two Atlantic 10 teams on the bubble:

	TEMPLE
CONFERENCE	ATLANTIC TEN
RECORDS
OVERALL	21-9
CONFERENCE ONLY	11-3
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	28
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	26
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	9-6
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	7-3
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	4-6
BEST WINS	Xavier (74-65); Richmond (65-52); @Charlotte (77-73)
WORST LOSSES	@Massachusetts (60-71)
REMAINING GAMES

Outlook:

The Owls' hot February cooled off a bit in March, with an A-10 quarterfinal edging of the Bonnies and then a 23-point semifinal loss to Charlotte. Still, Temple has done a lot, including testing itself multiple times in out-of-conference play where its best win was over Bowling Green.

	RICHMOND
CONFERENCE	ATLANTIC TEN
RECORDS
OVERALL	23-9
CONFERENCE ONLY	9-5
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	44
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	71
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	14-5
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	7-4
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	1-5
BEST WINS	VCU (56-48)
WORST LOSSES	@St. Joseph's (42-70); Towson (48-56)
REMAINING GAMES

Outlook:

The Spiders kept the A-10 final close agaist Charlotte and won 10 true road games, but it's probably not enough, especially when compared to Temple.

ATLANTIC SUN CONFERENCE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	EASTERN TENNESSEE STATE (RPI 85)

The Atlantic Sun Conference has no locks and no bubble teams beyond its automatic bid.

BIG EAST CONFERENCE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	CONNECTICUT (RPI 1)

LOCKS

LOUISVILLE (RPI 4)	PITTSBURGH (RPI 16)	DE PAUL (RPI 30)

NOTRE DAME (RPI 15)	VILLANOVA (RPI 36)	RUTGERS (RPI 17)

BIG EAST BUBBLES

To no one's great surprise, Connecticut nailed down the Big East Conference championship, trading its lock for an automatic bid. Villanova is back among the locks after knocking off Notre Dame in the league tourney. Rutgers also goes there, even at 18-12, because its strength of schedule is 4, there are no bad losses, and the Knights lost to UConn by only 10 (only one team all year stayed within single digits of the Huskies). That cuts the field of Big East bubble teams to two:

	SOUTH FLORIDA
CONFERENCE	BIG EAST
RECORDS
OVERALL	22-10
CONFERENCE ONLY	8-8
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	46
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	72
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	9-5
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	6-4
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	5-6
BEST WINS	Iowa (82-79 OT); Texas Tech (71-61); @Rutgers (59-56); @DePaul (76-69)
WORST LOSSES	@West Virginia (75-90)
REMAINING GAMES

Outlook:

Those are a lot of wins and a lot of good wins. 8-8 in this year's Big East ought to be enough.?

	MARQUETTE
CONFERENCE	BIG EAST
RECORDS
OVERALL	16-15
CONFERENCE ONLY	7-9
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	59
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	19
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	7-8
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	4-6
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	5-9
BEST WINS	Notre Dame (75-65);South Florida (68-60); Gonzaga (80-77)
WORST LOSSES	Wisconsin-Milwaukee (62-63); @Seton Hall (55-65); @Providence (49-51)
REMAINING GAMES

Outlook:

-Simply put, there aren't enough wins. Marquette lost at Providence, heading into two toughies, then fell in overtime to Cincinnati to go one-and-done in the league tourney. Reverse those two and we'd have something to talk about. Georgetown has a respectable record, at 17-13/7-9, but with only one win of consequence (at University of South Florida -- Gee, if the Bulls don't get in, here's why!) and two straight losses to Seton Hall to end the season there's no realistic hope for the Hoyas.

BIG SKY CONFERENCE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	MONTANA (RPI 47)

No other locks or bubbles in the Big Sky.

BIG SOUTH CONFERENCE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	LIBERTY (RPI 81)

Ditto: Nothing but the automatic for this conference.

BIG TEN CONFERENCE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	OHIO STATE (RPI 13)

LOCKS

MICHIGAN STATE (RPI 51)	PURDUE (RPI 25)	IOWA (RPI 37)

BIG TEN BUBBLES

With Ohio State moving from a lock to the automatic, two Big Ten teams are left on the bubble:

	MINNESOTA
CONFERENCE	BIG TEN
RECORDS
OVERALL	19-11
CONFERENCE ONLY	11-7
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	54
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	58
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	8-7
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	5-5
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	6-8
BEST WINS	@Ohio State (59-56); Michigan State (60-44, 66-51); Iowa (64-58); Boston College (80-60)
WORST LOSSES	@Northwestern (53-62); Illinois (50-61)
REMAINING GAMES

Outlook:

Okay, the finish wasn't that great, but sweeping Michigan State and having almost half your games against Top 50 teams is really impressive.

	INDIANA
CONFERENCE	BIG TEN
RECORDS
OVERALL	19-10
CONFERENCE ONLY	11-7
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	56
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	68
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	9-6
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	4-6
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	3-7
BEST WINS	Purdue (71-57); @Michigan State (71-65); Iowa (76-54)
WORST LOSSES	Illinois (52-61, 59-66)
REMAINING GAMES

Outlook:

The Hoosiers look like the Gophers at first glance, but the schedule just isn't there. Take away the Preseason NIT and Indiana's toughest out-of-conference game was at West Virginia. Plus Indiana lost at Minnesota.

BIG 12 CONFERENCE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	BAYLOR (RPI 8)

LOCKS

OKLAHOMA (RPI 2)	TEXAS A&M (RPI 7

IOWA STATE (RPI 14)	KANSAS STATE (RPI 28)	TEXAS (RPI 18)

BIG 12 BUBBLES

Baylor moves from a lock to the automatic, but the conference bubble field remains at one with the faintest glimmer of hope for an offer:

	KANSAS
CONFERENCE	BIG 12
RECORDS
OVERALL	18-13
CONFERENCE ONLY	6-10
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	55
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	34
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	5-8
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	6-5
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	2-7
BEST WINS	Iowa State (58-47); Baylor (69-45); Iowa (76-55)
WORST LOSSES	@Colorado (62-69)
REMAINING GAMES

Outlook:

Slim, but not quite none. Upsetting the Sooners might have raised some eyebrows, but it was another team (Texas A&M) who took those honors). Without having made it to the final, it's a longshot, but anything's possible.

BIG WEST CONFERENCE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	UC SANTA BARBARA (RPI 87)

It's strictly the automatic for the Big West.

COLONIAL ATHLETIC ASSOCIATION

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	DREXEL (RPI 69)

The Colonial Athletic Association has no locks. With Drexel in (for the first time ever) on an automatic, one team remains on the bubble:

COLONIAL BUBBLES

	VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
CONFERENCE	COLONIAL
RECORDS
OVERALL	26-6
CONFERENCE ONLY	15-3
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	32
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	92
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	10-6
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	10-2
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	1-2
BEST WINS	Georgetown (71-61)
WORST LOSSES	North Carolina-Wilmington (60-73)
REMAINING GAMES

Outlook:

Virginia Commonwealth lost at Drexel in overtime in a battle for first place in the CAA standings. Drexel would have had no chance for an at large bid (RPI 77, five losses outside the Top 100), but now that it has secured the automatic bid, there is a remote chance for an at-large for VCU which lost to James Madison in Colonial Conference semis.

CONFERENCE USA

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	CENTRAL FLORIDA (RPI 116)

It will be strictly the automatic from this conference.

HORIZON CONFERENCE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY (RPI 43)

Wisconsin-Green Bay took its fate into its own hands by winning the automatic, thereby eliminating itself as the only bubble team in the Horizon Conference. There were no locks.

IVY LEAGUE

REGULAR SEASON CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	DARTMOUTH (RPI 136)

The Ivy League does not play a tournament, so the regular season champion--this year, Darmouth--gets the automatic. There are no locks or bubbles in the Ivies.

METRO ATLANTIC CONFERENCE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	MARIST (RPI 33)

This is another case of a bubble team determining its own fortunes by winning its conference tournament. There is no one else in play in the Metro Atlantic Conference.

MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	BALL STATE (RPI 57)

The Mid-American has no locks. It still has one team on the bubble:

MID-AMERICAN BUBBLES

	BOWLING GREEN
CONFERENCE	MID-AMERICAN
RECORDS
OVERALL	28-4
CONFERENCE ONLY	15-1
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	42
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	181
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	15-4
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	10-2
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	0-1
BEST WINS	Hartford (56-52)
WORST LOSSES	@Valparaiso (58-69); @Miami (40-45)
REMAINING GAMES

Outlook:

Bowling Green, which has been hovering on the bubble for weeks now, lost to Ball State in yesterday’s tournament final. The MAC tourney isn't on Bowling Green's home court, and some sentiment might be on the side of the Falcons because of the time they've spent in the national rankings. But there just aren't many impressive wins here. Bowling Green's other notable out-of-conference games were beating St. Bonaventure and losing at Temple.

MID-EASTERN CONFERENCE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	NORTH CAROLINA AT&T (RPI 104)

It's just the automatic for the Mid-Eastern Conference.

MISSOURI VALLEY CONFERENCE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	EVANSVILLE (RPI 168)

There are no locks in the Missouri Valley Conference beyond the automatic, but there is still one bubble team in play:

MISSOURI VALLEY BUBBLES

	ILLINOIS STATE
CONFERENCE	MISSOURI VALLEY
RECORDS
OVERALL	24-7
CONFERENCE ONLY	15-3
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	51
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	114
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	13-6
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	8-3
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	0-1
BEST WINS	@Wisconsin-Green Bay (60-49)
WORST LOSSES	@Tulane (62-75); Cleveland State (50-64); @Indiana State (65-72); Northern Iowa (73-76 OT)
REMAINING GAMES

Outlook:

Two OT losses in the last two weeks have most likely made the automatic needed--and not available--for Illinois State, which lost badly to Evansville in the quarterfinal of the conference tournament. Aside from Wisconsin-Green Bay, Illinois State's only other Top 100 opponents on the out-of-conference slate were a win at home against Ball State and a loss at DePaul.

MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	UTAH (RPI 48)

Utah is yet another bubble team that gave itself the insurance it needed by winning its conference tournament. That leaves no locks, but three bubble teams in the Mountain West:

MOUNTAIN WEST BUBBLES

	SAN DIEGO STATE
CONFERENCE	MOUNTAIN WEST
RECORDS
OVERALL	23-7
CONFERENCE ONLY	13-3
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	38
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	84
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	9-7
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	8-2
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	2-4
BEST WINS	Texas (60-55); TCU (68-63)
WORST LOSSES	@San Diego (60-63); @Wyoming (61-64)
REMAINING GAMES

Outlook:

San Diego State lost to Utah in the tournament final, 63-58. The two teams shared the regular season championship. (Question: How is Utah's RPI so much worse than SDSU's? The two regular champs split six-point home wins over each other. The Utes also had a tougher OOC slate, with narrow loses to ranked teams.) In any event, a regular-season title has to mean something. San Diego State beat UNLV in the conference tournament semifinal. The Aztecs' other out-of-conference losses were at Connecticut and in the Rainbow Classic against Iowa State.

	TCU
CONFERENCE	MOUNTAIN WEST
RECORDS
OVERALL	20-10
CONFERENCE ONLY	12-4
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	45
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	57
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	7-7
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	7-2
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	3-3
BEST WINS	Maryland (80-68); @California (82-73); San Diego State (65-62)
WORST LOSSES	@Fresno State (71-75); @UNLV (75-84)
REMAINING GAMES

Outlook:

The Frogs finished with a big home win over Utah, and then a quarterfinal tourney loss to the home team in Vegas. Still, the wins against Maryland and at Cal should make a bigger impression than an early out in Vegas. What to do with the Mountain West teams might be the biggest challenge the NCAA selection committee faces over the weekend.?

	NEW MEXICO
CONFERENCE	MOUNTAIN WEST
RECORDS
OVERALL	22-10
CONFERENCE ONLY	9-7
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	80
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	120
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	6-8
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	6-6
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	3-6
BEST WINS	DePaul (68-66); Texas Tech (63-54); TCU (75-63)
WORST LOSSES	@Wyoming (50-52); @UNLV (51-57)
REMAINING GAMES

Outlook:

Worth a glance, but New Mexico will probably need two more wins and the automatic to get the quality wins it needs (who's the idiot that decided the Number Four seed needed to play four games in the league tourney?)--and it didn't get them. New Mexico routed Air Force in the tournament’s opening round and took a decisive win over Colorado State in the quarters, before falling by one point, 55-56, in the semifinal against Utah. UNM has one really nice out-of-conference win, but the only times the Lobos left the state for out-of-conference play were blowout losses at Stanford and at Texas A&M.

NORTHEAST CONFERENCE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	SACRED HEART (RPI 82)

It's just the automatic for the Northeast.

OHIO VALLEY CONFERENCE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	AUSTIN PEAY (RPI 184)

And the same is true for the Ohio Valley.

PAC-10 CONFERENCE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	STANFORD (RPI 11)

LOCKS

CALIFORNIA (RPI 29)	ARIZONA STATE (RPI 31)

Stanford has secured the automatic, leaving Cal and Arizona State, the two locks that have been percolating for weeks now. But despite better than expected performances in the conference tournament by UCLA and USC (who made it all the way to the finals after upsetting Cal), there will be no bubbling here. The three 9-9 teams (UCLA, USC, Oregon State) have a best RPI of 60, a combined record of 3-17 (post-tournament) against the three locks, and no Top 50 non-league wins.

PATRIOT LEAGUE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	LEHIGH (RPI 83)

One and done for the Patriot League.

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	VANDERBILT (RPI 27)

LOCKS

AUBURN (RPI 8)	TENNESSEE (RPI 10)

FLORIDA (RPI 22)	LSU (RPI 20)

SEC BUBBLES

Now that Vanderbilt has moved itself from a lock to an automatic, there are four locks and two bubble teams remaining in the SEC:

	MISSISSIPPI STATE
CONFERENCE	SEC
RECORDS
OVERALL	22-9
CONFERENCE ONLY	8-6
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	41
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	65
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	10-5
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	6-4
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	3-6
BEST WINS	LSU (38-36, 65-55); Vanderbilt (66-61)
WORST LOSSES	Arkansas (62-65)
REMAINING GAMES

Outlook:

An SEC team with 22 wins and no bad losses has to be in great shape, even after failing to pull off the three-game sweep over LSU. Mississippi State's out-of-conference schedule included single-digit losses to Xavier and at Maryland, a win at Utah, and 11 wins over teams with RPIs below 130.?

	GEORGIA
CONFERENCE	SEC
RECORDS
OVERALL	18-13
CONFERENCE ONLY	7-7
RATINGS PERCENTAGE INDEX	53
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE	31
ON THE ROAD OR IN NEUTRAL VENUES	8-10
SINCE FEBRUARY 1	4-6
AGAINST TOP-50 OPPONENTS	4-10
BEST WINS	Auburn (67-58); Florida (84-75); Vanderbilt (66-55); Mississippi State (69-57)
WORST LOSSES	@Detroit (66-70)
REMAINING GAMES

Outlook:

Who here had the Dogs sitting out the Big Bracket back in November? That's a real possibility after an eight-point quarterfinal loss to eventual champ Vandy.

The remaining seven conferences have automatic bids only. There are no locks and no bubble teams in any of these conferences:

SOUTH WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	PRAIRIE VIEW A&M (RPI 171)

SOUTHERN CONFERENCE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	WESTERN CAROLINA (RPI 100)

SOUTHLAND CONFERENCE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	UT SAN ANTONIO (RPI 96)

SUMMIT LEAGUE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (RPI 23)

South Dakota State comes off the bubble to make its first ever NCAA tournament appearance courtesy of the automatic bid.

SUNBELT CONFERENCE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (RPI 21)

Another worthy team moves from the bubble to the automatic (considerately freeing up the at-large bid for someone else).

WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	FRESNO STATE (RPI 91)

WEST COAST CONFERENCE

TOURNAMENT CHAMPION
Automatic Bid	GONZAGA (RPI 34)

One more team gone from the bubble field via the automatic.

Summary:

So there's the math. Thirty-one automatic bids awarded to tournament champions (or in the case of the Ivy League, to the regular season champ). Twenty-six of the remaining 33 at-large bids already accounted for by teams whose records amount to a lock. That leaves seven at-large bids still up for grabs and 16 teams still with a leg in the race.

Whether you've read this series as an aid to forecasting the Selection Committee's announcements, or as an after-the-fact crib sheet for finding a rationale for the March Madness, we hope you've enjoyed our "Bubble Wrap." 'Til next year.

Records through March 15; RPI and SOS through March 15, courtesy of CollegeRPI.com.