By Bob Corwin, Correspondent
The meeting in Tallahassee pitted defending Big 12 Tournament Champion Texas A&M and the to-date underachieving Florida State University. Florida State had been variously ranked 21 and 24 in the preseason polls. While FSU quickly fell out of the Top 25, Texas A&M rose to its all-time high of number three in the week before this loss. Since then, the Aggies, now 13-1, have dropped to number eight in the AP Top 25 and to six in the USA Today/ESPN rankings. While Florida State picked up a few votes, the loss was not enough to help them climb back into the Top 25.
There’s a lot to be learned from the upset beyond what took place on the court. Before looking at the “crime scene,” let us look at each party’s past history this season.
The Victor
Florida State Seminoles: M.O. - Erratic behavior; tend to mimic opponent’s level of performance; lost national ranking due to several unexpected losses; pre-season picked fifth in the strong ACC.
Florida State’s season started well enough with wins over Florida Gulf Coast, North Florida and the College of Charleston. When in post-game interview Karl Smesko, coach of Florida Gulf Coast University who played both Florida State (to which it lost by 19 in Tallahassee) and Florida (over which it won by three at home), implied that Florida had a good shot at winning its upcoming match-up in Tallahassee, the natural implication was that he was just talking “coach speak” to the media. Obviously not, as the Lady Gators handled the Seminoles fairly easily.
Florida State’s early wins were followed by its upset loss to archrival Florida in Tallahassee and an even more surprising loss to Valparaiso at the Colorado State Tournament. After that, it was back to the drawing board for the FSU staff, looking for the right chemistry. Line-up changes followed and the ‘Noles notched four more wins before a close loss to struggling Washington (5-6 to date) in Cancun, Mexico. Another loss followed, this one to number 1-ranked U Conn, but the Seminoles could take heart in the fact that they loss by a mere 12 points, outscoring the Huskies in the second half.
In short, one could accuse the ‘Noles of playing just badly enough to lose a losable game. That is, until December 28, when Florida State took a 61-57 win against a strong LSU team in a nail-biter in Baton Rouge. Having now followed that performance with a defeat of number three Texas A&M, one has to ask: Are the Seminoles finally poised to turn things around?
Traits
Pluses (sometimes theoretical):
1. FSU possesses a bevy of experienced athletic players able to slow down the opposition. Nine players have been averaging double-digit minutes.
2. They have two competent 6-4 inside players in freshman Cierra Bravard and junior Jacinta Monroe (team’s leading scorer), both capable of double-digit scoring.
3. Based on prior years, senior wings Tenae Davis-Cain and Mara Freshour should be capable of knocking down threes.
4. Sophomore point guard Courtney Ward now has a year’s experience under her belt and has been shooting the ball better than last year.
5. Perimeter scoring by Alysha Harvin (5-10 junior), Angel Gray (5-9 junior) and Christian Hunnicutt (5-10 sophomore), all known more for defense, has amounted to over 17 points per game for the season.
Minuses (at times all too real):
1. Prior to the A&M game, Davis-Cain was shooting just over 39% both from the field and from beyond the arc. However, her performance had been very erratic from game to game. Her shooting in the losses was as follows: Florida (4/15), Valparaiso (1/8) and Washington 1/8. Sadly a strong 25-point outing against Connecticut was “wasted.” Consistency of perimeter shooting has in general been an issue but it does center on Davis-Cain as she is expected to lead in this area.
2-3. Freshour’s shooting percentages are down from last year partly perhaps because she spends significant time playing the point (not her natural position) when Coach Sue Semrau puts Ward on the bench due to fouls or just not playing well (turnovers, game management issues). Thus a double whammy!
4. Neither post (Bravard nor Monroe) is a true 4F. FSU has trouble at times guarding that position. In fact, Alysha Harvin often gets that assignment, although listed as a guard.
5. The two “bigs” (Bravard and Monroe) are not strong passers and sadly appear incapable of any high-low post action, at times forcing FSU Coach Sue Semrau to “go small.”
6. There is no third “big” of quality. Junior 6-2 center Cayla Moore is a thickly built low post, capable of banging and getting some boards but not scoring. On top of that, she is a “foul magnet.”
7. The team cannot successfully sustain a hyper pace and this was shown against the Aggies for more than half the game.
Diagnosis: This edition of the Seminoles is by national standards a team of NCAA tournament quality, capable of hanging with some of the nation’s best (Connecticut, Texas A&M). They are also erratic enough to lose to seemingly much weaker opponents as one or more of the above weaknesses surface on a given night. Like many others this season, this is a possible Sweet Sixteen dark-horse candidate.
The Victim
Texas A&M Aggies: M.O. - Consistent behavior; won 28 out of last 30 (going back into last season) prior to this contest; plays fast and ugly according to coach; defensive mind set above everything else, allowing less than 60 points per game all season against a respectable preconference schedule; picked fifth pre-season according to Big 12 Pre-season poll. (Oklahoma was picked first.)
Traits
Pluses:
1. Depth with legitimate scoring threats in Tanisha Smith (6-0 junior G/F) and Tyra White (6-0 freshman G) coming off the bench.
2. Two point guards both named Sydney (Colson 5-8 sophomore; Carter 5-6 freshman) with Takia Starks able to play the position as well. Most teams are lucky enough to have one ball handler.
3. Excellent help-man defense. If the first wave breaks down, someone comes to block the path to the basket; opponents averaged through 12 games only 50.1 points. In contrast, FSU yielded 59.1 for its first 15 contests.
4. Experience. The Aggies returned all key players but two now in the WNBA and one role player.
5. Two potential WNBA 2009 draft selections in leading scorer Takia Starks (5-8 G) and Danielle Gant (5-11 F).
Minuses:
1. The low post, occupied by either starter La Toya Micheaux (6-3 senior) or reserve Damitria Buchanan (6-2 junior), has trouble scoring even when getting good position.
This was the case last year as well.
2. Danielle Gant (shooting 49.6%) can be a prolific college scorer but she is undersized at 5-11, showing limited range, and can get into foul trouble dealing with the “bigs” in the paint.
3. Sydney Colson is not yet 100% coming back from her ACL injury.
4. Leading scorer Takia Starks averaged 15.3 ppg for her first 12 games but is shooting only 40.5% from the field.
5. Including this contest, the Aggies have both taken and made fewer free throws than their opponents. This is a symptom of a team relying more on jump shooting than drawing contact with driving and low post offense.
6. Team may not be able to win a “fire fight” if they have to match points in high scoring game.
Diagnosis: Quality defensive team similar to some Rutgers teams of recent years but with more up-tempo nature; increased depth counters loss of last year’s starting point guard (A’Quonesia Franklin, now with the Sacramento Monarchs); likely NCAA Sweet Sixteen participant with a chance to repeat Elite Eight appearance; lack of post offense should catch up to them by then.
The Crime: Upset of then-number three-ranked team by home-standing unranked team.
In the post game press conference FSU Coach Sue Semrau called this “a tale of two halves.” I saw it, instead, as a four-part saga.
Part 1 – Sparring: In a fast-paced, low-scoring contest, FSU leads for most of the first 15 minutes, yet struggles to hold on to the ball, turning it over 10 times to 8 for the visitors, who were not fully taking advantage of their opponent’s miscues. With 5:08 left in the half, the Aggies take the lead 19-17.
Part 2 - Breakdown: During this stanza, the A&M offense starts to click aided by three more FSU turnovers. The lead builds to 29-19 at half. Meanwhile, the Aggie defense is doing its part. Even when the ‘Noles were getting a seemingly clean look at the basket, the shot was hurried by an Aggie defender closing in. In general, the visitors controlled the pace and clearly had the home folks on the run. Key stats: 20.2% shooting by FSU; 6-0 fast break points by Texas A&M. The Aggie run continues in the second half, taking the lead to 43-26 at 13:27 but it is now more Aggie offense than defense that is getting the job done.
Part 3- The Tide Slowly Turns: Even before the lead had reaches its zenith, the pace of the game has started to slow down a peg or two. In the entire second half, FSU only turns the ball over six times and allows no Aggie fast break points. Over the next six minutes or so, the Seminoles whittle away at the lead. The play-by-play becomes repetitive, with the term “missed jumper” regularly appearing in the Aggie column. FSU is now scoring in the paint as A&M’s defense has become somewhat lax. Seminole looks that were hurried in the first half are cleaner in the second. Still with 7:03 left in the half, reserve Tanisha Smith (who led the Aggies with 17 points) hits a layup to bring their lead to a seemingly comfortable 50-40.
Part 4 - The Collapse: FSU finishes the game on a 20-3 run. In truth, it was a 20-1 run as the Starks basket with eight seconds left was meaningless. The pace during this stanza seems yet a peg slower. Layups and foul shots by FSU are countered by more missed jumpers and failed three-pointers from A&M.
In 40 combined minutes, Aggie centers Micheaux and Buchanan took only four shots of which they made just one. Fearful of misses, they generally passed up stick-back attempts on their eight offensive rebounds. After watching the lack of touch displayed on their few attempts, it was easy to understand why. Points in the paint for the second half were 24 to 6 for the home side.
Heroes for the home team: Jacinta Monroe with 15 points and 9 boards; Tanae Davis-Cain finished 5/16 overall but 4/8 in the second half; Courtney Ward broke down the Aggie defense with penetration scoring seven of her nine points in the second half.
A&M’s Lone Star: Tanisha Smith had 17 points and 5 steals in 29 minutes off the bench.
Aggie Downers: After going 2/6 in the first half, Takia Starks went 1/12 (0/6 from 3) in the second half. Sydney Colson had 8 turnovers. Back-up point Sydney Carter played but 1 minute, quickly forced to the bench suffering from “concussion-like symptoms.”
Instruments of Defeat:
1. Perseverance by FSU;
2. Let down on defense by A&M after building a big lead;
3. Less speedy tempo in second half, favored ‘Noles;
4. Lack of post as scoring option forced Aggie jumpers;
5. For most of night, Danielle Gant kept in check as she finished with just 10 points. Normally, she does serious damage in the paint.
Prognosis: Both teams now head into conference play. Texas A&M is but one of four highly ranked Big 12 squads and should finish somewhere in that mix. FSU, picked fifth pre-season, will need to become more consistent to improve on that placement.
Final Thoughts: Take profits on Texas A&M as they are not likely to go much higher than their recent number six-ranking. For speculation, buy a few shares of FSU. There is a chance they could be a Sweet Sixteen finisher, but are likely to be in the NCAA field, seated somewhere between 20-40, which is their approximate current value.
Kudos to A&M Coach Gary Blair, who was gracious in defeat during the post-game press conference! Instead of knocking his team for their first loss or criticizing officials in some veiled manner, he praised the Seminoles for their gutsy comeback. Noting the crowd (or lack thereof--much less than the listed 2,373), he urged better support for Sue Semrau’s squad.