Here’s a position-by-position break down of the matchups.
Point guard: Elaine Powell vs. Tully Bevilaqua
Elaine Powell starts for the Shock but usually plays a reserve's number of minutes. She's a steady, unspectacular point guard whose scoring is non-existent. Powell missed half the season with a foot injury. Since her return, she has taken only 10 shots in six games and has made only three of them. She is no threat from the perimeter, having taken only three three-point shots all season. She's a good ball handler who doesn't turn the ball over often but her lack of offense hurts the Shock.
Bevilaqua is a traditional “pass first” point guard who seems to be getting better rather than older. She's a savvy player who makes few mistakes and runs the Fever offense well. She will never be a scorer but she shot well enough and frequently enough to force teams to defend her. Bevilaqua's strength is her defense and she is one of the best in the WNBA. She has the potential to disrupt the Shock offense and could force whoever plays point for Detroit to be less aggressive than normal.
Advantage: Indiana
Shooting guard: Deanna Nolan vs. Katie Douglas
In Deanna Nolan the Shock have one of the most athletic, explosive players in the WNBA. She has the capacity to carry the team and the ability to get her shot almost at will. Nolan also enters the playoffs on a hot streak. In her last twelve games she is averaging 20 points and hitting 55% of her shots. Nolan can be unstoppable when she is hot offensively, but her defense will also be vital. She has held Douglas in check in the past and if she does so again, Indiana will be in deep trouble.
Indiana traded for Katie Douglas so she could provide a scoring compliment to Tamika Catchings and play her exceptional defense. She has provided the defense but after a strong start, her scoring has trailed off. Before erupting for 24 points in the Fever's final game, she had made only eight of 29 attempts in her previous three games. If Indiana is to have a chance, Douglas will have to both score and hold Nolan in check with her defense. She could well struggle to do either.
Advantage: Detroit
Small Forward: Katie Smith vs. Tamika Catchings.
Katie Smith is a savvy, physically and mentally strong player who can be depended on not to make many mistakes. Although her scoring has dropped in recent years, she remains one of the most feared outside threats in the league. She’s an underrated defender whose court sense is matched by few. Smith may not have the numbers of her teammates but she is the type of player championship teams need. She'll do whatever her team needs, including playing point guard when no one else is available. Smith will get minutes at one, two and three. Because of the match-up with Catchings, she will likely be most effective at point or shooting guard.
Tamika Catchings’s injury in the 2007 playoffs essentially derailed Indiana's 2008 season. At her best Catchings is one of the very best players in the world and the best individual defender in the WNBA. She is probably still not 100 percent, but her play has consistently improved since her return to action. Her numbers across the board are career lows but she remains one of the biggest threats in the league. She is playing well enough to force Detroit to concentrate on stopping her and her defense is strong enough to take anyone she is covering out of the offense.
Advantage: Indiana
Power Forward: Taj McWilliams Franklin vs. Ebony Hoffman
Taj McWilliams-Franklin gives the Shock haters real problems. While many find it easy to root against Bill Laimbeer and the team, it is much harder to root against McWilliams-Franklin. When Laimbeer brought her to the team to take Ford's place, he got a well-rounded veteran who can score, rebound and defend. She's a consistent player who badly wants a championship to cap her career. More importantly, she has the ability to step up and make a play when her team needs it most from her.
2008 has been a breakthrough year for Ebony Hoffman. After entering the season with career averages of 4.1 points and 3.6 rebounds, she dropped her weight, upped her conditioning, and more than doubled her numbers to 10.4 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. She has added a three-point shot that is effective enough to force her opponent away from the basket. If she can take McWilliams-Franklin outside, it would be a huge advantage for the Fever. Even if she can do that, however, the less experienced Hoffman is likely to struggle to try and defend the wily McWilliams-Franklin.
Advantage: Detroit.
Center: Kara Braxton vs. Tammy Sutton-Brown
Kara Braxton moved into Detroit’s starting lineup late in the season and has provided decent minutes at power forward, although not as many minutes as the team needs. With Cheryl Ford out, the Shock need someone to give them a real physical presence and Braxton provides that. But she has not been able to give that presence without fouling. Since the Olympic break, she has averaged 18 minutes and 3 personal fouls a game. In the playoffs, she will have to be able to stay on the court more consistently.
Tammy Sutton-Brown has become one of the league's most competent, consistent players. Throughout her career she has regularly put up 11 points and hauled down six rebounds a game. This year was no exception. She is also a strong defender who should be more than able to handle Braxton. However, she is also foul prone and those fouls limit her minutes on the court. Her fouls limited her to only 29 minutes a game during the regular season. She will have to be on the court for 35 if the Fever are to have any chance.
Advantage: Indiana
The Bench
Detroit's bench is one of their strengths. Plenette Pierson and Alexis Hornbuckle both play starter-type minutes and each gives the team something unique. Pierson is the team's third leading scorer, a good passer and a good rebounder. Hornbuckle led the league in steals and plays more point guard than starter Powell. Veterans Sheri Sam and Kelly Schumacher and rookie Olayinka Sanni all can provide valuable minutes without hurting the team's overall performance.
Indiana, on the other hand, get little from their bench as a whole and exceptionally little from their post bench. Guard Tan White started when Catchings was out and is the only bench player who contributes regularly off the bench. But White is not a consistent player and she did not shoot well this year. Anyone else who comes off the bench is a significant step down from the player she replaces.
Advantage: Detroit
The Coaches
The are few members of the WNBA whose name provokes a more definitive image –- and visceral reaction -- than Bill Laimbeer. That image can overshadow the fact that Laimbeer is an excellent coach and an even better general manager. Laimbeer has a definite style he wants his team to play and he does an exceptional job of getting and using players who fit his style. His teams do not get outworked on the court and he does not get outcoached during games.
Lin Dunn is a veteran coach who has yet to prove that she can succeed as a head coach in the league. Even considering the absence of Catchings, the Fever did not live up to expectations this year. Indiana is a “defense first” team, but they were not an especially effective defensive team in 2008. Dunn may well be coaching for her job in this post season and, if that is the case, the Fever will likely have another coach in 2009.
Advantage: Detroit
Intangibles
Detroit has one huge advantage over Indiana. They know how to win when it matters most. That's something that can neither be quantified, easily acquired nor overestimated. They play with a chip on their shoulders and compete as well as anyone. In addition they have home court advantage in the series.
The Fever give every appearance of being a team that knows they are struggling. They have never jelled into a cohesive unit in 2008 and, as a result, have not played up to their potential all season.
Advantage: Detroit
Conclusion
It's difficult to see how Indiana can win this series. The only chance they have is if their starters all play as well as they can and Detroit self-destructs. That is not likely to happen.
Detroit in two games.