The bad news (at least for now) is out. Several articles hinting at the impending demise of the league have been written since the Charlotte Sting folded, but those folks are going to have to wait a while. Currently I see no remaining franchise in immediate danger of folding.
With new owners in Houston and Los Angeles, these teams should have at least a few more years before they may re-join my watch list (as they had been on) of possibly endangered franchises. While I prefer the deep pockets of their previous owners, with both the Comets and Sparks, the league has acquired enthusiastic, financially committed individuals at the helm of these franchises. Perhaps success will follow, perhaps not, but more time has been bought.
One negative to the events of this winter is that the credibility of WNBA President Donna Orender has been damaged. I’m sure, when asked, she will utter plausible reasons for the league’s inability to save the Sting franchise and avoid yet another dispersal. I’m just not buying them, or for that matter that the Comets and Sparks were bought for $10 million each. At least the latest media talk is of expansion to Atlanta (another city where the league would not succeed) rather than imminent doom.
On the court prospects look reasonably good, as last year's crop exceeded my expectations. Candice Dupree added value, as she was an all-star, along with sister rookies Seimone Augustus, Cappie Pondexter and Sophia Young. That’s not bad for a kid passed on by every major college in her home state of Florida.
Sherill Baker was the steal of the draft at number 12 (I would have taken her at number five). Barbara Turner was a good find at number 11, but the least successful of the first rounders was Shona Thorburn (who probably played much of the summer injured). Also largely ineffective were Kim Smith and Tye’sha Fluker. While not doing well for most of the year, Lisa Willis showed some signs of contribution late in the season. Shanna Zolman and LaToya Bond contributed the most from second-round selections. For third-rounders, Megan Duffy, who I expected to go much higher, led the way, averaging 12.5 minutes per game in a backup point guard role.
Unlike last year, the 2007 draft has no surefire stars. In fact the more I watch the pro prospects from the class of 2007, the less I like them.
As a result, teams will draft more for need than for best available player. As each player has some weakness, it might be one of those years where one of the non-top three picks may shine through (as in 2005 with Temeka Johnson, who was a sixth pick) to win Rookie of the Year. Of course if Candace Parker comes out, she goes number one and the rookie race ends before it begins. I do not, however, expect this to happen until 2008.
With that in mind, I've divided the potential draftees into five groups. Group one has players who I view as contributors as rookies (starters or at least rotation players) and group two contains players who have a good chance of making some kind of impact.
Given the contraction of Charlotte, I would not guarantee the third group will even make a roster. From group three and down, the luck of which team selects a player will be as critical to making a roster as the players' skills. And even then, given the strength of the 2008 draft, it could be a short stay in the league for some of those rookies who make the league this year.
Gut check monitor: Below you will read all my reasoning, but there's more than just logic to go on. My gut feelings say successful picks will be Lindsey Harding (leadership), Tiffany Jackson (versatile inside help), and then from the second group Noelle Quinn (perimeter offense) and Camille Little (perimeter defense). Of course this is subject to change between now and Draft Day.
What to do with the first pick: If Tammy Sutton-Brown signs with Phoenix, I would take Tiffany Jackson to bolster the rebounding. However, if a trade could be put together involving Kelly Miller and the rights to Stepanova for a quality power forward, I would then take Lindsey Harding. If Sutton-Brown goes elsewhere, Jessica Davenport may be needed to get the size needed to win out West. Of course, if Candace Parker is on the draft board April 4, she is a no-brainer at number one.
First group: Immediate help (starters to rotation)
(Each group is listed alphabetically)
Alison Bales, 6-7 C, Duke: She has come a long way from her freshman year, improving skill and showing more enthusiastic body language. Good passer and shot blocker with improved range and surprising ability to put ball on floor for size. S still not the rebounder you would hope for at mega-height. While I see her as a better version of Katie Feenstra, the prospect of medical school in her future may lessen progress beyond college.
Jessica Davenport, 6-5 C, Ohio State: Davenport operates primarily at the low post; while not exceptionally athletic, she is still more athletic than Bales and a better rebounder. Should be able to defend the bigs of the league while not starring as one.
Lindsey Harding, 5-7 PG, Duke: She has really blossomed as a redshirt senior showing a refuse to lose attitude. Defends and runs offense very well. Tremendous push on the break seems more noticeable this year than last; scoring more this year but shooting a tad lower percentage. Weakness appears to be three-ball, and some question her physical strength. It’s hard for me not to like this package at the next level -- in fact, if I was drafting a player with need not a factor, I would take her first. For WNBA management, quality point guards are the hardest commodity to find. Still, I keep wondering if she is as good as she has looked in big games this year.
Tiffany Jackson, 6-3 C/F, Texas: Jackson has suffered from being the kid blessed with so much athletic talent that more is always expected of her. Has improved passing and game understanding; rebounds well. Game still has upside; weakness is consistent scoring with most reliable move turning clockwise over right shoulder. Can contribute in enough ways that she should help a squad in her first year and could star later if athletic potential finally gets fulfilled.
Ivory Latta, 5-5 PG, North Carolina: When healthy, Latta shows obvious speed and quickness, can penetrate or shoot the deep three. Decision-making has improved through her college career; at times may think shot first a bit too often; size will be issue at times in pro. I know a number of WNBA observers who feel that she is overrated but I still think she would be an upgrade for several franchises at the point guard position.
Second group: Maybe helpers (rotation to bench)
Jessica Dickson, 5-10 G, South Florida: Dickson is athletic and has a mid-range jumper to go along with penetration skills. Can make threes but must get better there as well as improve her percentage inside the arc. When scouts are present, she's has been very good some days and not very good on others. Has improved her handles but still must get better there too.
Chrissy Givens, 5-9 G, Middle Tennessee: Givens will be competing with Dickson for draft position; has more guard skills but less size and not as good with three-ball. Some scouts seem to like her more and others less compared to Dickson.
Camille Little, 6-1 F, North Carolina: Another quality athlete out of this program, Little is a very good defender able to guard all perimeter positions. Goes to basket well; must still become more consistent with three-ball. Only third option in offense so may have more in tank than showing most nights. Her college teammate La’Angela Atkinson gave Indiana something as a rookie and I have always liked Little more May be safest pick of this group to give team something.
Bernice Mosby, 6-1 F, Baylor: Mosby has been cloned into a Sophia Young replacement after her transfer from Florida. More under control with very few wild shots as in her days in Florida. Quick off her feet with game mostly mid-key and in. Rebounds well; at times still forces shots but has shown improved passing out of the doubles (which have bothered her) lately. Must be more consistent in range out to elbow to succeed at the WNBA level. Is she an equal to or just a poor man’s SophiaYoung?
Noelle Quinn, 6-0 G, UCLA: Lately has been at point (which isn’t her best position). Quinn has to be one of best passers for her size in the women’s college game; good all-around perimeter offensive skills; sadly appears out of shape and overly winded at times. Gets lost on defense a bit much. Will probably need to lose weight to succeed at the WNBA level. Could turn out to be as good as any in the first group, if she shapes up at the next level. A gambler might take her in top five if uninspired by the rest.
Third group: First round candidates but may not make a roster
Kamesha Hairston, 6-0 F, Temple: Hairston sometimes plays power forward but is definitely a perimeter player at the pro level given her slender build. Glider who goes to basket and pulls up at midrange well; must improve three-ball.
Armintie Price, 5-9 G, Mississippi: Good driver and defender, rebounds well for size. Must improve range; game similar to Seattle’s Tanisha Wright.
Sidney Spencer, 6-3 small forward, Tennessee: Very tall wing shooter specializing in threes -- thus a taller version of Laurie Koehn. Enters ball to post well enough but trouble defending perimeter pro could limit her success at next level. Rated this high as she has a niche as a very tall long range specialist.
Carla Thomas, 6-3 C/F, Vanderbilt: Versatile power player able to score from elbow to block. Does not play up to height at times in competing for rebounds.
Fourth group: Drafted and mostly cut
Cori Chambers, 5-10 G/F, Georgia: Baseline perimeter bomber; needs to penetrate more.
Dee Davis, 5-6 PG, Vanderbilt: Field general decent in a number of categories but not special in any one; backup role possible.
Shay Doron, 5-8 G, Maryland: Fearless but also stubborn in her game. Playing more under control as a senior; defense a question at next level as well.
Katie Gearlds, 6-0 G, Purdue: Has good guard skills with great height; struggled lately to shoot in televised games. Lacks foot which could be her long term undoing at WNBA level.
Gillian Goring, 6-6 C, North Carolina State: Great size; decent ability to post or face basket. Struggles to run court at times. Knees may not be the best; staying healthy and desire to keep playing have been questions.
Kiera Hardy, 5-6 G, Nebraska: Motto is “when in doubt, attack”. Will shoot outside or go to hole; sometimes can play out of control. Naturally a 2G where she is small; reminds me some of Betty Lennox.
Brandie Hoskins, 5-9 G, Ohio State: Now out for the college season and likely summer with injury. Strong and athletic; goes to the basket well in half or open court. Outside shot needs much work; likely will drop to third round but given the year may still get picked.
Lindsey Medders, 5-9 PG, Iowa State: Creative point guard who can score some with penetration. Outside shot inconsistent and defense (like other Iowa State guards of the past) needs to be better to succeed at the next level.
Shay Murphy, 5-11 G, Southern Cal: Wing penetrator who can get to the basket. Outside shot improved but still a question. Plays hard.
Jillian Robbins, 6-1 power forward, Tulsa: Puts up impressive rebounding stats but when viewed live, struggled against taller, stronger posts. Range a question as well.
Brooke Smith, 6-3 C/F, Stanford: Looked better when stationed at the low block where she can be Brooke the Hook. She is somewhat limited at the high post; at the pro level, does not have the body to bang with the bigs down low.
Fifth group: Possibly drafted or training camp invitees
Amanda Brown, 6-3 C, Penn State: Nice low post moves; needs much more range as she scores mid-key in, mostly on block. Ability to bang down low a question.
Nare Diawara, 6-6 C, Virginia Tech: Has improved touch in close but feel for game still needs to be better. Still kind of raw.
Jazz Covington, 6-2 C, Louisville: Strong build, decent skills around basket but range and mobility a question. Has not stepped up as senior.
Alicia Gladden, 5-11 F, Florida State: Good defender but has trouble scoring if unable to get close to basket.
Suntana Granderson, 5-10 G, Xavier: Nice slasher going left or right; can pull-up for J. Consistent range a question and could play harder.
Cameo Hicks, 5-10 G, Washington: Has steadily improved her numbers over her college career; a lefty who prefers to go left. Could be a tweener at the next level.
Erin Higgins, 5-11 G, Oklahoma: Long distance bomber; rarely goes to hole. Has been inconsistent in her specialty.
Jennifer Humphrey, 6-3 power forward, Kentucky: Good rebounder, decent passer; needs to handle ball better and show more ability to score. Range a question and not as physically built as may be needed.
Yolanda Jones, 6-1 power forward, Louisiana Lafayette: Above average athlete; needs to make better decisions with ball. Foul shooting needs to improve.
Erin Lawless, 6-2 F, Purdue: Decent athlete with good mobility. Due to body type, would be of greater value if effective as a small forward but generally scores in paint, thus tweener at next level.
Monique Martin, 5-11 G, Brewton Parker: Good all-around guard skills but only spent one season in D1 (at Middle Tennessee) after coming out of JC. How game will translate to pro level from much lower level is question.
Carrie Moore, 5-9 G, Western Michigan: Puts up big numbers but mostly against lesser opposition. Turns the ball over too much.
Lauren Neaves, 6-1 F/C, Rice: Good college post; needs more range as height and build do not translate to a low block pro.
Christina Quaye, 6-2 C/F, Marquette: Strong build; scores mostly in paint but can step out and face up to even beyond the arc. Foot could be a question at the next level.
Kathrin Ress, 6-4 C, Boston College: Well skilled around basket; solidly built but may have trouble hanging with the better athletes of the league. Running the court a question as well.
EeTisha Riddle, 6-3 C, Missouri:Lefty with sturdy build who usually goes left to score. Can hit from foul line but release a bit slow. Mobility might need to be better to succeed at WNBA level.
Alesha Robertson, 6-0 G/F, Texas Tech: Long-range bomber who has improved her driving ability. Foot in general and defending in particular may be insufficient at the WNBA level.
Leah Rush, 6-1 F, Oklahoma: Versatile forward with nice package of inside/outside offensive skills. Defense and foot against a pro level small forward is a question.
Renee Taylor, 5-3 PG, Miami (FL): A poor man’s Latta; very quick but may jack up too many shots bordering on a lack of control.
Megan Vogel, 5-11 F/G, South Dakota State: Well-built lefty wing with three-pointrange. Defense and handles may need improvement to make it on the next level.
Emily Westerberg, 6-1 F, Arizona State: Versatile lefty who plays hard and has a good feel for the game. May not have enough range to make it as a three or power to make it at the four.
Mallorie Winn, 5-10 PG, Pittsburgh: Has asked NCAA for additional year of eligibility due to knee injury. Had decent all-around point guard skills for size before injury; if coming out and healthy, worth a look.
Final thoughts: I continue to wish that more college seniors could impact the WNBA each year. This could increase interest as hopefully more college fans would want to keep track of how their favorite players were doing at the next level. Unfortunately, the gap between these levels is great and only a few can successfully cross the divide each year without watering down the WNBA product.
A coach was pointing out a talented college player to me saying “If she was two inches taller, she would play in the WNBA.” My answer was “She isn’t and won’t.” Sadly, this is all too true for all too many.